The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...
With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.
Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.
My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.
Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Monday, November 23, 2015
Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState
Hard to argue with the chances of an article about 2016 GOP hopeful Donald Trump and my home state of Iowa getting posted here..
This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.
As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.
My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".
True enough!
Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState
This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.
As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.
My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".
True enough!
Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Monday, November 2, 2015
New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton
Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.
Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead
On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).
Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.
On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.
And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).
My Take:
No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.
Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.
That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.
Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead
On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).
Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.
On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.
And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).
My Take:
No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.
Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.
That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.
Labels:
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Wednesday, September 2, 2015
Lessig on Equal Citizens- Long Shot with a Worthy Cause?
I stumbled on this video today and after watching all 38 minutes of it, I'd say it's definitely worth a watch..
But with a few disclaimers:
When you look past that first item, I have to say it's hard to argue with his logic on how the political system is rigged and how it does often come back to a simple truth: politicians of both parties are gaming the system to get/stay in office and are becoming less and less representative of the American electorate every election.
Not saying I would vote for the guy, but the reason for his campaign certainly is a bold one.
Watch the video and think hard about how the federal government has been serving its citizens..
But with a few disclaimers:
- Mr. Lessig is making no secret of the fact he plans to run as a Democrat and given his list of possible VPOTUS candidates you can choose from, a fairly "progressive" one. So, if you have any qualms against Democrats and/or Progressives, probably not your candidate.
- IF Mr. Lessig was to actually make it to the White House, he claims he would also serve as long as it took to pass his Citizens Equality Act into law, after which he would resign the presidency.
When you look past that first item, I have to say it's hard to argue with his logic on how the political system is rigged and how it does often come back to a simple truth: politicians of both parties are gaming the system to get/stay in office and are becoming less and less representative of the American electorate every election.
Not saying I would vote for the guy, but the reason for his campaign certainly is a bold one.
Watch the video and think hard about how the federal government has been serving its citizens..
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Sanders Gaining on Clinton in Iowa
Today a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll was released and for the Democratic side of the race, it's a mixed bag.
For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.
She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?
For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.
Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..
Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near
Here is the actual polling data:
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31.pdf
For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.
She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?
For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.
Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..
Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near
Here is the actual polling data:
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31.pdf
Is Trump's candidacy the beginning of a new era or Just the end of the GOP?
Just a little over four years ago, I posted a piece entitled; Looking for a Jack Ryan President.., in which I posted the political dream of having a President said what he meant and asked the American people to break the vicious cycle in Washington D.C. by electing non-career politicians to Congress in the aftermath of a national tragedy...
Sad bit was, this call for a return to sanity for American politics didn't come from any presidential hopeful, it came from a fictional character in a book written by the late-author Tom Clancy back in 1996.
Amazing how in four years, sadly nothing has truly changed in American politics. Political wannabes promise if elected, they will do everything in their power to undo all the terrible things POTUS has done and not let him get away with all his shenanigans anymore...Just a few months into office and most GOP voters are already having "buyer's remorse" with the GOPers they elected to Congress in 2014. Time and time again, GOP congressional leadership, who made their bones calling POTUS everything short of a traitor to get into their positions of power, have instead rolled over and allow the very things they said they would stop, happen anyway.
Even worse, when some young anti-establishment politicians try to make a political stand (whether for good reasons or not), these same GOP leaders beat them over the head with talk of lacking "professionalism" in their duties as congressmen.
So after getting taken for a ride by the GOP leadership over the last two years, many within the GOP's ranks (and some outside of them) have rallied around a candidate who have never been taken seriously under any "normal" circumstances.
That's right, I'm talking about Donald Trump.
Sad bit was, this call for a return to sanity for American politics didn't come from any presidential hopeful, it came from a fictional character in a book written by the late-author Tom Clancy back in 1996.
Amazing how in four years, sadly nothing has truly changed in American politics. Political wannabes promise if elected, they will do everything in their power to undo all the terrible things POTUS has done and not let him get away with all his shenanigans anymore...Just a few months into office and most GOP voters are already having "buyer's remorse" with the GOPers they elected to Congress in 2014. Time and time again, GOP congressional leadership, who made their bones calling POTUS everything short of a traitor to get into their positions of power, have instead rolled over and allow the very things they said they would stop, happen anyway.
Even worse, when some young anti-establishment politicians try to make a political stand (whether for good reasons or not), these same GOP leaders beat them over the head with talk of lacking "professionalism" in their duties as congressmen.
So after getting taken for a ride by the GOP leadership over the last two years, many within the GOP's ranks (and some outside of them) have rallied around a candidate who have never been taken seriously under any "normal" circumstances.
That's right, I'm talking about Donald Trump.
Friday, August 28, 2015
Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016) via RedState
One thing you can say about Erick Erickson, he doesn't really beat around the bush does he?
A fascinating read about the GOP's future (or lack thereof) and IMHO, a very real possibility..
Could 2016 really be looked back on as the day the Republican Party died?
Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016)- RedState
A fascinating read about the GOP's future (or lack thereof) and IMHO, a very real possibility..
Could 2016 really be looked back on as the day the Republican Party died?
Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016)- RedState
Friday, August 21, 2015
Reuters Exclusive: Dozens of Clinton Emails may have been Classified From the Start
The Clinton email scandal just gets more messy all the time..
Wiped servers (per the FBI), idiotic denials by Clinton herself (does anyone really think she is that stupid?), and now this exclusive from Reuters.
Kudos to Reuters' Jonathan Allen for this interesting story.
Exclusive: Dozens of Clinton Emails may have been classified from the start
Wiped servers (per the FBI), idiotic denials by Clinton herself (does anyone really think she is that stupid?), and now this exclusive from Reuters.
Kudos to Reuters' Jonathan Allen for this interesting story.
Exclusive: Dozens of Clinton Emails may have been classified from the start
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Feeling the Bern: Sanders Campaign powered by 350k donors
"Feeling the Bern" has become the favorite catchphrase for the insurgent campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders and for good reason. Seemingly everywhere Sanders goes, there are huge crowds (sometimes even over-shadowing the Donald's crowds) and now we have some hard numbers to back up that popularity: 350,000
That's how many donors have contributed financially to the Sanders campaign, reportedly more than ANY candidate in the current presidential race.
So what is behind the "Bern"?
I'll leave that to The Economist's V.V.B., who recent piece Bernie Sanders on tour:Chicago feels the Bern, gives a good idea of the "genius" (or madness) of the Sanders campaign.
That's how many donors have contributed financially to the Sanders campaign, reportedly more than ANY candidate in the current presidential race.
So what is behind the "Bern"?
I'll leave that to The Economist's V.V.B., who recent piece Bernie Sanders on tour:Chicago feels the Bern, gives a good idea of the "genius" (or madness) of the Sanders campaign.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Latest CNN/ORC Poll: Can you stop the Donald?
Latest CNN/ORC poll via PollingReport.com
Monday, August 17, 2015
Trump Finally Unveils Immigrant Policy: End Birthright Citizenship, Deport, & a Wall
Donald Trump has received a lot of flak as of late for being all talk and no details on his wide-ranging policy opinions, none more mocked/ridiculed than his opinions on immigration reform.
Now, Trump has released some details on his proposed immigration policy and to say it will drive amnesty-oriented immigration activists up a wall, would be pretty charitable.
For more details, please read The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan's piece:
Donald Trump: Undocumented immigrants 'have to go'
Good to see the Donald is finally putting some policy where his mouth is, but whether its the RIGHT policy to win over Republican primary voters, is another question entirely..
Now, Trump has released some details on his proposed immigration policy and to say it will drive amnesty-oriented immigration activists up a wall, would be pretty charitable.
For more details, please read The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan's piece:
Donald Trump: Undocumented immigrants 'have to go'
Good to see the Donald is finally putting some policy where his mouth is, but whether its the RIGHT policy to win over Republican primary voters, is another question entirely..
Saturday, August 15, 2015
#SOSStrawPoll at Iowa State Fair Results: Bernie Leads!
One of the benefits/irritations of being from Iowa is that every four years you get to explain why the Iowa State Fair is all over the national news.
Because of a little thing called the Iowa Caucus, which will be early next year, and is the first-in-the-nation vote for the presidential candidates from both parties.
And one of the "attractions" at this year's State Fair is an informal (and I would assume, "unscientific") poll taken by Iowa's Secretary of State. As of Saturday night, over 2000 participants from the State Fair have taken part in the poll and here are the results:
The obvious bit that jumps out at your from this poll is Bernie Sanders leader over Hillary Clinton and also the fact that far more votes for Republican candidates have taken place than for the Democrats.
However, I have to mention that this is apparently an unscientific poll and thus should be taken with a rather large grain of salt...
Interesting results nonetheless..
Labels:
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
BREAKING: Sanders Leads Clinton in Latest NH Poll!
Rather striking that the same day the FBI inquiry into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server turned up at least one email with "top secret" information, also happens to be the day a new poll comes out of New Hampshire showing Clinton losing the lead for the Democratic nomination..
Specifically, this new poll comes from the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald and show Senator Bernie Sanders taking a 44-37 lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
The main hesitation point I would offer concerning this poll is its small survey size: only 442 participants.
Whether Clinton's falling poll numbers are connected to her ongoing scandal over her questionable* use of government email is of course up for conjecture, but it's damn unfortunate timing..if you're working for the Clinton campaign that is.
* = In other words, activity that would get literally ANYONE ELSE FIRED
Specifically, this new poll comes from the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald and show Senator Bernie Sanders taking a 44-37 lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
The main hesitation point I would offer concerning this poll is its small survey size: only 442 participants.
Whether Clinton's falling poll numbers are connected to her ongoing scandal over her questionable* use of government email is of course up for conjecture, but it's damn unfortunate timing..if you're working for the Clinton campaign that is.
* = In other words, activity that would get literally ANYONE ELSE FIRED
Sunday, August 9, 2015
Republicans aren't the only ones with an activist "problem"..
The 2016 presidential race has definitely taken a turn for the interesting over the last few months.
On the GOP side of the house, they have a massive field of candidates, which had no clear front-runner until arguably the most unlikely of serious candidates, Donald Trump, came onto the scene. Now the GOP is torn between the establishment who is frightened by the prospect of candidate Trump and elements of the party who see him as a "savior" of sorts.
The Democrat side of the house on the other hand, is a quite different story. From the start, there wasn't much serious talk of Hillary Clinton having any competition for the Democratic nomination. Even when contenders like Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley announced, few political observers/reporters took more than a curious interest.
Today, Bernie Sanders is seeing massive turnout at seemingly every major event he attends, and unlike Hillary Clinton, his support has all the appearance of real passion from the party's progressive wing. Nationwide polls still show Sanders trailing Clinton by a good ways, but state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota show a much closer race.
RedState contributor take on Donald Trump: Buyer's Remorse?
RedState's "Streiff" has posted an interesting piece on the "Trump phenomenon" currently going on in the GOP right now.
He has come to a somewhat radical conclusion: Donald Trump isn't necessarily part of the "fringe" of the GOP, he is exactly the kind of candidate many GOPers have been hoping for for years: brash, unafraid of political correctness, and supremely confident in his own opinions.
Trouble is, some more prominent GOPers are having something akin to "buyer's remorse" now that Donald Trump has taken the lead in the 2016 race for the GOP.
Great and simple piece IMHO.
I will leave "Streiff" to explain the rest..
Donald Trump is not conservative but he is not fringe | RedState
He has come to a somewhat radical conclusion: Donald Trump isn't necessarily part of the "fringe" of the GOP, he is exactly the kind of candidate many GOPers have been hoping for for years: brash, unafraid of political correctness, and supremely confident in his own opinions.
Trouble is, some more prominent GOPers are having something akin to "buyer's remorse" now that Donald Trump has taken the lead in the 2016 race for the GOP.
Great and simple piece IMHO.
I will leave "Streiff" to explain the rest..
Donald Trump is not conservative but he is not fringe | RedState
Erickson Talks of Trump Dis-Invite Backlash
Erick Erickson gave us an idea of the backlash he has received from dis-inviting Donald Trump from the RedState Gathering in his recent piece at RedState..
What Happens When You Rescind an Invitation to Trump? | RedState
Personally, this whole episode shows the, "quality", of at least some of Donald Trump's supporters..or a lack thereof.
What Happens When You Rescind an Invitation to Trump? | RedState
Personally, this whole episode shows the, "quality", of at least some of Donald Trump's supporters..or a lack thereof.
Friday, July 3, 2015
Hot Take from Vox.com: the American Revolution was a mistake | RedState
RedState's Streiff takes on some rather pathetic alternative history from some twerp at Vox..
Nothing history majors like myself love more than folks trying to "change" history getting stumped on..
Hot Take from Vox.com: the American Revolution was a mistake | RedState
Nothing history majors like myself love more than folks trying to "change" history getting stumped on..
Hot Take from Vox.com: the American Revolution was a mistake | RedState
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Breitbart: Illinois GOP State Senator's Crony Capitalism Revealed
For those who assume the folks at Breitbart.com spend all-day picking on President Obama and the Democratic Party in general, here is a slight change of pace for ya.
Revealed: Darin LaHood's Crony Capitalism Deals Funnels Millions of Taxpayer Dollars to Campaign Donors
Revealed: Darin LaHood's Crony Capitalism Deals Funnels Millions of Taxpayer Dollars to Campaign Donors
Out of Uniform & Into the Political Fray- ForeignPolicy
An interesting piece by Foreign Policy Magazine's Sean Naylor discussing the grey area surrounding retired military personnel becoming involved in politics and public policy.
Specifically, he discusses the recent case of Lt. General Michael Flynn (Retired) was, until last August, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (which is the DoD's intelligence agency, independent of the likes of the CIA).
Lt. General Flynn has not been bashful about his criticisms of the current administration's foreign policy decisions over the last few years, believing it is his duty to speak out.
Strictly speaking, given that Lt. General Flynn is now retired, he has every right to be politically active (activity that is VERY restricted for active military personnel, something I can attest to).
An interesting topic and an insightful read folks, give it a look!
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
10 Ways Political Parties Control Your Vote- Independent Voters Network
In a thought-provoking piece on the Independent Voters Network (IVN), author Daniel Kim (a legal intern for the Independent Voter Project) lays out 10 fairly straight forward ways the dominant political parties of America today have the system seemingly rigged in their favor.
Not saying I agree 100% with all his points, but at the very least this list should enlighten folks on how the electoral system REALLY works in America today..
10 Ways Political Parties Control Your Vote- IVN
Not saying I agree 100% with all his points, but at the very least this list should enlighten folks on how the electoral system REALLY works in America today..
10 Ways Political Parties Control Your Vote- IVN
Jenner, Gender, and Debate | RedState
A short and simple piece by RedState's Joe Cunningham on how daring to even discuss/question the concepts of sexuality/gender identity has become yet another example of the "tyranny of the minority"...
Jenner, Gender, and Debate | RedState
Jenner, Gender, and Debate | RedState
Saturday, May 30, 2015
Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState
A short and sweet piece by RedState's Joe Cunningham on how the Iowa GOP is trying to prop-up the Iowa Straw Poll...
Which considering last election cycle's chaotic "front-runner shuffle" surrounding the Straw Poll and its aftermath, not that shocking that many candidates are choosing to opt-out.
Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState
Which considering last election cycle's chaotic "front-runner shuffle" surrounding the Straw Poll and its aftermath, not that shocking that many candidates are choosing to opt-out.
Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Democratic Contender O'Malley brings his Message to Iowa
One thing that seems inevitable about the coming Presidential election cycle was that while there is going to be a wide array of GOP candidates battling for their party's nomination, the odds of any real competition in Democratic party seemed low.
For better or worse, it didn't seems like there was going to be much competition to the presumed front-runner, Hillary Clinton.
But, that could be changing.
With the ongoing 'scandal' of Clinton's use of a personal email service for his official correspondence as Secretary of State, at least one of the likely Democratic contenders is taking advantage of the situation: former Maryland Governor O'Malley.
O'Malley has been a suspected contender for the Democratic nomination for some time, but was rarely considered a serious threat to a presumed campaign of Hillary Clinton. So far, his main theme has been a critique of Wall Street and how the federal government hasn't done nearly enough to hold 'big banks' responsible for their actions during the 2008 crash and preventing such another crash in the future.
If that sounds familiar, it should, since much of O'Malley's positions are reminiscent of another possible Democratic contender, Senator Elizabeth Warren. However, Warren has repeated stated she won't seek the nomination. We'll see if that stance lasts...
O'Malley on the other hand is making it pretty clear of his intentions. Nothing says "I want to run for President" than a visit to my home state of Iowa.
In addition to his visits to the cities of Davenport, Tipton, and Council Bluffs, he also penned an op-ed piece for the state's largest newspaper, The Des Moines Register.
While O'Malley's chances of taking the nomination from Hillary Clinton seem low, you certainly can't fault him for making the best of her recent bit of bad press and getting his name out there as much as possible.
Personally, I suspect O'Malley will make a bigger splash in the Democratic race than most assume..
Kudos to John Wagner of The Washington Post for his recent piece on O'Malley's visit to Iowa.
Monday, March 2, 2015
Obama Seriously Does not know why Americans didn't vote in 2014- Independent Voter Network
Kudos to Shawn Griffiths at the Independent Voter Network for this no-nonsense piece on low-voter turnout in America today...
Obama Seriously Does Not Know Why Americans Didn't Vote in 2014- IVN
Obama Seriously Does Not Know Why Americans Didn't Vote in 2014- IVN
Congressional Redistricting Commission: Can they pass the Constitutional Muster?
Kudos to the good folks at the Independent Voter Network for this great story on a topic most American voters sadly don't hear much about: Congressional Redistricting
Every decade, with the new census comes the need to evaluate the current 435 congressional districts in the United States. Because the current number of members in the House of Representatives is fixed at 435, there is a serious need every decade to re-draw these congressional districts so that each has roughly the same number of people in it (thus ensuring that each member of Congress represent the same number of citizens).
How exactly this redistricting is carried out is decided on a state-by-state basis, but there is no general rule: No gerrymandering
What's Gerrymandering? Simply put, its the purposely re-drawing of congressional districts to serve a particular political party/faction's agenda.
"In theory", such methods are illegal in the United States by various Supreme Court decisions, especially Davis v. Bandemer. Problem is, even the Supreme Court couldn't say by what standard gerrymandering cases should be held to. In other words, the Supreme Court agrees gerrymandering should be illegal and they have the authority to try such cases but are not sure to draw the actual "legal line".
One idea over the years to help prevent political interests from taking too big a role in re-drawing congressional districts is to use so-called "Independent Redistricting Commissions". These commissions are initially set-up by the state legislature but once created, has relatively free-reign in how they ultimately re-draw the lines. These commissions are normally created via popularly voted on amendments to the state's constitution.
Question is, are such commissions constitutional? By taking the power away from the state legislatures to conduct their task, are they interfering the state's right to determine congressional districts?
Those are some of the questions the Supreme Court will be working to answer in the upcoming Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Com'n.
Thanks again to IVN's Daniel Kim for this story!
Do Independent Redistricting Commissions Pass Constitutional Muster?
Every decade, with the new census comes the need to evaluate the current 435 congressional districts in the United States. Because the current number of members in the House of Representatives is fixed at 435, there is a serious need every decade to re-draw these congressional districts so that each has roughly the same number of people in it (thus ensuring that each member of Congress represent the same number of citizens).
How exactly this redistricting is carried out is decided on a state-by-state basis, but there is no general rule: No gerrymandering
What's Gerrymandering? Simply put, its the purposely re-drawing of congressional districts to serve a particular political party/faction's agenda.
"In theory", such methods are illegal in the United States by various Supreme Court decisions, especially Davis v. Bandemer. Problem is, even the Supreme Court couldn't say by what standard gerrymandering cases should be held to. In other words, the Supreme Court agrees gerrymandering should be illegal and they have the authority to try such cases but are not sure to draw the actual "legal line".
One idea over the years to help prevent political interests from taking too big a role in re-drawing congressional districts is to use so-called "Independent Redistricting Commissions". These commissions are initially set-up by the state legislature but once created, has relatively free-reign in how they ultimately re-draw the lines. These commissions are normally created via popularly voted on amendments to the state's constitution.
Question is, are such commissions constitutional? By taking the power away from the state legislatures to conduct their task, are they interfering the state's right to determine congressional districts?
Those are some of the questions the Supreme Court will be working to answer in the upcoming Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Com'n.
Thanks again to IVN's Daniel Kim for this story!
Do Independent Redistricting Commissions Pass Constitutional Muster?
Saturday, January 31, 2015
New Bloomberg/Des Moines Register Poll: Walker Leads crowded GOP Field
A new poll conducted by Bloomberg News and the Des Moines Register shows just how wide the GOP field of candidates for 2016 really is...
A few stats to keep in mind when reading the results of this poll:
The big "winner" of the GOP side of the poll is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, being the first choice of 15% of those polled. Given his recent performance at the "Freedom Summit" held by Iowa Congressman Steve King earlier this week, this results points to Walker getting his message across to those who walked the summit or followed it in conservative media.
Other solid "honorable mentions" include Senator Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee (who remains quite popular in Iowa even today, 7 years after his caucus win in the 2008).
Also of interest is that Mitt Romney, who quite publicly withdrew from the GOP field yesterday, was the first choice of 13% of those polled. Not bad for a candidate who lost in the Iowa caucus the last two election cycles (though only by a hair this last time around). With his exit, that puts a lot of points up for grabs.
Me being something of a numbers-guys (my day job), I wanted to see the actual poll results for myself to see if there any other interesting tidbits that didn't make it in Bloomberg's article, and sure enough I did.
Here are a few of these "tidbits":
A few stats to keep in mind when reading the results of this poll:
- 402 Iowans participated in the GOP side of this poll.
- Those polled are "likely caucus-goers", meaning they are folks likely to participate in the Iowa Caucus this time next year.
- Poll was conducted between 26-29 January.
The big "winner" of the GOP side of the poll is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, being the first choice of 15% of those polled. Given his recent performance at the "Freedom Summit" held by Iowa Congressman Steve King earlier this week, this results points to Walker getting his message across to those who walked the summit or followed it in conservative media.
Other solid "honorable mentions" include Senator Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee (who remains quite popular in Iowa even today, 7 years after his caucus win in the 2008).
Also of interest is that Mitt Romney, who quite publicly withdrew from the GOP field yesterday, was the first choice of 13% of those polled. Not bad for a candidate who lost in the Iowa caucus the last two election cycles (though only by a hair this last time around). With his exit, that puts a lot of points up for grabs.
Me being something of a numbers-guys (my day job), I wanted to see the actual poll results for myself to see if there any other interesting tidbits that didn't make it in Bloomberg's article, and sure enough I did.
Here are a few of these "tidbits":
- Among the likely Democratic caucus-goers, when asked if the GOP did win the White House in 2016, which of their candidates would be the best leaders, Chris Christie (20%), Jeb Bush (19%) and Mitt Romney (15%) came out on top.
- Mike Huckabee has the highest overall favorable-rating of the GOP field at 66%, with Rand Paul (64%), Rick Perry (64%), and Scott Walker (60%) right behind him.
- However, Scott Walker has the highest "Very Favorable" rating by those polled at 32%.
- Of the much-talked candidates in the media, Jeb Bush and Christie are definitely struggling, with favorable-rating below 50% (46% and 36% respectively).
- On a personally satisfying note, waste-of-oxygen Donald Trump received an overall favorable-rating of just 26% (good to see I'm in good company with my fellow Iowans).
- When you take Mitt Romney out of the race, the poll does not show any one candidate getting a large boost in overall support.
We are roughly one year away from the Iowa Caucuses and as political "veterans" and Iowans well know, what the GOP field looks like today could change is the blink of an eye.
For the moment though, Governor Scott Walker is probably feeling pretty good about his efforts for far...
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Sen. Joni Ernst Small Gov't Hypocrisy? Ernst's Family Received $460K in Fed Farm Subsidies
Sen. Joni Ernst’s family actually received more than $460,000 in federal subsidies
Yet another example of folks who make a leaving preaching against government subsidizing too many aspects of American's lives...except those connected to the politician of course.
Being from Iowa, I can tell you that anyone trying to speak out against farm subsidies is NOT going to be a very popular person with many Iowa farmers and thus most politicians try to steer away from the topic.
But if your claim to political fame is talking about how "simple" your life was growing up and use that to tell Americans they don't need the federal government $ to get somewhere in life, you might want to rethink your message when your family's livelihood is in part subsidized by the federal government..
Yet another example of folks who make a leaving preaching against government subsidizing too many aspects of American's lives...except those connected to the politician of course.
Being from Iowa, I can tell you that anyone trying to speak out against farm subsidies is NOT going to be a very popular person with many Iowa farmers and thus most politicians try to steer away from the topic.
But if your claim to political fame is talking about how "simple" your life was growing up and use that to tell Americans they don't need the federal government $ to get somewhere in life, you might want to rethink your message when your family's livelihood is in part subsidized by the federal government..
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
In SOTU, Obama Fails to Address State of the National Debt | IVN.us
In SOTU, Obama Fails to Address State of the National Debt | IVN.us
Short and sweet piece about that "deficits but by two-thirds" business in the SOTU last night..
Short and sweet piece about that "deficits but by two-thirds" business in the SOTU last night..
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Liberals vs Conservatives: Response to the State of the Union
In a change of pace, instead of me commenting on the President's State of the Union speech tonight, I instead want to give you folks an idea of how the two ends of the American political spectrum look at the same speech..(and then give my thoughts on the speech).
First, in the "liberal" corner, we have Ezra Klein of Vox.com:
The most important sentence in Obama's 2015 State of the Union- Vox
And in the "conservative" corner, we have Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard:
Obama's Defiant Speech- The Weekly Standard
Interestingly enough, both writers do seem to agree on one thing: The President's speech tonight was NOT one of concession or much compromise. The speech gave the impression of a President who is looking to advance a "new" agenda and be damned what happened last November...
For me, I do have to respect the President's defiance of last November's loss for his party and still propose a wide new agenda that he has to know will likely never be passed before he leaves office. He could talked more compromise given his party's weakened position, but not this President.
That being said, one does have to wonder why real purpose the President thinks this speech will serve, if any, in the long run.
A defiant speech in the face of recent political defeat is great for rallying the troops but could eventually end up wreak of pointless "political theater" to the average voter, who will then be wondering if you he/she will ever get those 90 minutes of their lives back...
On a final note, you may be surprised to hear that I don't really have much to say about my home state's new senator, Joni Ernst, having her shot at the GOP response to the SOTU. I generally don't have anything "nasty" to say about Senator Ernst, except maybe this: The fact she seems to rarely start a speech without mentioning that she is a "mother" and a "soldier" honestly bothers me. I can't really put my finger on it, but something about how she says it and the frequency in which she thinks we need to be reminded of it strikes me as run-of-the-mill campaign catch-phrase for selling political ads. I actually like her stories about growing up in rural Iowa (I can somewhat relate), but that other bit just doesn't come off as being as genuine...
Rant over, have a great week ya'll!
First, in the "liberal" corner, we have Ezra Klein of Vox.com:
The most important sentence in Obama's 2015 State of the Union- Vox
And in the "conservative" corner, we have Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard:
Obama's Defiant Speech- The Weekly Standard
Interestingly enough, both writers do seem to agree on one thing: The President's speech tonight was NOT one of concession or much compromise. The speech gave the impression of a President who is looking to advance a "new" agenda and be damned what happened last November...
For me, I do have to respect the President's defiance of last November's loss for his party and still propose a wide new agenda that he has to know will likely never be passed before he leaves office. He could talked more compromise given his party's weakened position, but not this President.
That being said, one does have to wonder why real purpose the President thinks this speech will serve, if any, in the long run.
A defiant speech in the face of recent political defeat is great for rallying the troops but could eventually end up wreak of pointless "political theater" to the average voter, who will then be wondering if you he/she will ever get those 90 minutes of their lives back...
On a final note, you may be surprised to hear that I don't really have much to say about my home state's new senator, Joni Ernst, having her shot at the GOP response to the SOTU. I generally don't have anything "nasty" to say about Senator Ernst, except maybe this: The fact she seems to rarely start a speech without mentioning that she is a "mother" and a "soldier" honestly bothers me. I can't really put my finger on it, but something about how she says it and the frequency in which she thinks we need to be reminded of it strikes me as run-of-the-mill campaign catch-phrase for selling political ads. I actually like her stories about growing up in rural Iowa (I can somewhat relate), but that other bit just doesn't come off as being as genuine...
Rant over, have a great week ya'll!
DISCLAIMER:
All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Pennsylvania's Attorney General Faces Possible Indictment over Leaks to Newspaper..
Definitely not the kind of publicity the Democratic Party is looking for so early in the new year..
Attorney General Kathleen Kane has been something a rising star within the Democratic party since his election in 2012 as Pennsylvania's first female Attorney General.
Her victory has often been linked to strong support from former President Bill Clinton, who campaigned strongly for her in 2012, including during the primary election (probably wouldn't have anything to do with the fact Kane's primary opponent supported Barack Obama back in 2008...).
While not much information has necessarily been released concerning the possible charges against her, they appear to stem from a claim she released potentially damning investigate material of political opponents to a newspaper.
Stay tuned for this one, as I suspect once an indictment comes, more details will be released and this could turn out to be more than just bad publicity for the Democrats..
Attorney General Kathleen Kane has been something a rising star within the Democratic party since his election in 2012 as Pennsylvania's first female Attorney General.
Her victory has often been linked to strong support from former President Bill Clinton, who campaigned strongly for her in 2012, including during the primary election (probably wouldn't have anything to do with the fact Kane's primary opponent supported Barack Obama back in 2008...).
While not much information has necessarily been released concerning the possible charges against her, they appear to stem from a claim she released potentially damning investigate material of political opponents to a newspaper.
Stay tuned for this one, as I suspect once an indictment comes, more details will be released and this could turn out to be more than just bad publicity for the Democrats..
Sunday, January 4, 2015
RedState: The Insanity of the GOP: Doing the Same Thing Over & Over- Add Erick Erickson to the dog-pile!
Well, as predicted, the dog-pile for the #DumpBoehner movement begins..
Now with Redstate's Erick Erickson adding his 2 cents!
The Insanity of the GOP: Doing the Same Thing Over and Over | RedState
Now with Redstate's Erick Erickson adding his 2 cents!
The Insanity of the GOP: Doing the Same Thing Over and Over | RedState
Iowa Congressman Steve King: "I can't vote for John Boehner again."- Let the dog-pile begin!
First, my thanks to The Iowa Republican's very own Craig Robinson who posted this fascinating story about an op-ed by on Breitbart.com today...
Per Breitbart.com:
Well known conservative hardliner Representative Steve King (IA-4) announced publicly today that he will NOT vote for John Boehner to be Speaker of the House of Representatives this coming session.
This is not the first such public statement by GOPers in the House over the last few days (Representatives Gohmert and Yoho have also made similar statements this weekend), but King's maybe the most foreboding in several ways.
Firstly, for folks who haven't following my blog for very long, I have a VERY strong dislike for Representative King (to the be point he sometimes makes me embarrassed to be from the same state, but thankfully not my home district..). I do however, acknowledge that he does hold some sway within Iowa's conservative movement and is NOT to be under-estimated as a political opponent.
So why does his statement against current Speaker of the House John Boehner mean more than these previous statements?
Because of what state Mr. King represents: Iowa.
Per Breitbart.com:
Well known conservative hardliner Representative Steve King (IA-4) announced publicly today that he will NOT vote for John Boehner to be Speaker of the House of Representatives this coming session.
This is not the first such public statement by GOPers in the House over the last few days (Representatives Gohmert and Yoho have also made similar statements this weekend), but King's maybe the most foreboding in several ways.
Firstly, for folks who haven't following my blog for very long, I have a VERY strong dislike for Representative King (to the be point he sometimes makes me embarrassed to be from the same state, but thankfully not my home district..). I do however, acknowledge that he does hold some sway within Iowa's conservative movement and is NOT to be under-estimated as a political opponent.
So why does his statement against current Speaker of the House John Boehner mean more than these previous statements?
Because of what state Mr. King represents: Iowa.
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