Sunday, February 28, 2016

Latest YouGov Polling Results: Mixed News All Around

Seems it took a very detailed new 2016 Presidential poll to get me out of hiding and posting again...

Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27. 

What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...

With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.

Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.

My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Monday, November 23, 2015

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Hard to argue with the chances of an article about 2016 GOP hopeful Donald Trump and my home state of Iowa getting posted here..

This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.

As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.

My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".

True enough!

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Reuters Rolling Presidential Poll -- 17 November 2015

Monday, November 2, 2015

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Lessig on Equal Citizens- Long Shot with a Worthy Cause?

I stumbled on this video today and after watching all 38 minutes of it, I'd say it's definitely worth a watch..

But with a few disclaimers:

  • Mr. Lessig is making no secret of the fact he plans to run as a Democrat and given his list of possible VPOTUS candidates you can choose from, a fairly "progressive" one. So, if you have any qualms against Democrats and/or Progressives, probably not your candidate. 
  • IF Mr. Lessig was to actually make it to the White House, he claims he would also serve as long as it took to pass his Citizens Equality Act into law, after which he would resign the presidency. 

When you look past that first item, I have to say it's hard to argue with his logic on how the political system is rigged and how it does often come back to a simple truth: politicians of both parties are gaming the system to get/stay in office and are becoming less and less representative of the American electorate every election.   

Not saying I would vote for the guy, but the reason for his campaign certainly is a bold one.

Watch the video and think hard about how the federal government has been serving its citizens..

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Sanders Gaining on Clinton in Iowa

Today a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll was released and for the Democratic side of the race, it's a mixed bag.

For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.

She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?

For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.

Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..

Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near

Here is the actual polling data: