Monday, November 2, 2015

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.

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