Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...

With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.

Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.

My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Monday, November 23, 2015

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Hard to argue with the chances of an article about 2016 GOP hopeful Donald Trump and my home state of Iowa getting posted here..

This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.

As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.

My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".

True enough!

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Reuters Rolling Presidential Poll -- 17 November 2015

Monday, November 2, 2015

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.