Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Latest YouGov Polling Results: Mixed News All Around

Seems it took a very detailed new 2016 Presidential poll to get me out of hiding and posting again...


Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27. 


What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...

With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.

Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.

My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.


Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Reuters Rolling Presidential Poll -- 17 November 2015

Monday, November 2, 2015

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Is Trump's candidacy the beginning of a new era or Just the end of the GOP?

Just a little over four years ago, I posted a piece entitled; Looking for a Jack Ryan President.., in which I posted the political dream of having a President said what he meant and asked the American people to break the vicious cycle in Washington D.C. by electing non-career politicians to Congress in the aftermath of a national tragedy...

Sad bit was, this call for a return to sanity for American politics didn't come from any presidential hopeful, it came from a fictional character in a book written by the late-author Tom Clancy back in 1996.

Amazing how in four years, sadly nothing has truly changed in American politics. Political wannabes promise if elected, they will do everything in their power to undo all the terrible things POTUS has done and not let him get away with all his shenanigans anymore...Just a few months into office and most GOP voters are already having "buyer's remorse" with the GOPers they elected to Congress in 2014. Time and time again, GOP congressional leadership, who made their bones calling POTUS everything short of a traitor to get into their positions of power, have instead rolled over and allow the very things they said they would stop, happen anyway.

Even worse, when some young anti-establishment politicians try to make a political stand (whether for good reasons or not), these same GOP leaders beat them over the head with talk of lacking "professionalism" in their duties as congressmen.

So after getting taken for a ride by the GOP leadership over the last two years, many within the GOP's ranks (and some outside of them) have rallied around a candidate who have never been taken seriously under any "normal" circumstances.

That's right, I'm talking about Donald Trump.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016) via RedState

One thing you can say about Erick Erickson, he doesn't really beat around the bush does he?

A fascinating read about the GOP's future (or lack thereof) and IMHO, a very real possibility..

Could 2016 really be looked back on as the day the Republican Party died?

Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016)- RedState

Saturday, August 15, 2015

#SOSStrawPoll at Iowa State Fair Results: Bernie Leads!

One of the benefits/irritations of being from Iowa is that every four years you get to explain why the Iowa State Fair is all over the national news.

Because of a little thing called the Iowa Caucus, which will be early next year, and is the first-in-the-nation vote for the presidential candidates from both parties. 

And one of the "attractions" at this year's State Fair is an informal (and I would assume, "unscientific") poll taken by Iowa's Secretary of State. As of Saturday night, over 2000 participants from the State Fair have taken part in the poll and here are the results:


The obvious bit that jumps out at your from this poll is Bernie Sanders leader over Hillary Clinton and also the fact that far more votes for Republican candidates have taken place than for the Democrats.

However, I have to mention that this is apparently an unscientific poll and thus should be taken with a rather large grain of salt...

Interesting results nonetheless..



Sunday, August 9, 2015

RedState contributor take on Donald Trump: Buyer's Remorse?

RedState's "Streiff" has posted an interesting piece on the "Trump phenomenon" currently going on in the GOP right now.

He has come to a somewhat radical conclusion: Donald Trump isn't necessarily part of the "fringe" of the GOP, he is exactly the kind of candidate many GOPers have been hoping for for years: brash, unafraid of political correctness, and supremely confident in his own opinions.

Trouble is, some more prominent GOPers are having something akin to "buyer's remorse" now that Donald Trump has taken the lead in the 2016 race for the GOP.

Great and simple piece IMHO.

I will leave "Streiff" to explain the rest..


Donald Trump is not conservative but he is not fringe | RedState

Erickson Talks of Trump Dis-Invite Backlash

Erick Erickson gave us an idea of the backlash he has received from dis-inviting Donald Trump from the RedState Gathering in his recent piece at RedState..


What Happens When You Rescind an Invitation to Trump? | RedState


Personally, this whole episode shows the, "quality", of at least some of Donald Trump's supporters..or a lack thereof.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

10 Ways Political Parties Control Your Vote- Independent Voters Network

In a thought-provoking piece on the Independent Voters Network (IVN), author Daniel Kim (a legal intern for the Independent Voter Project) lays out 10 fairly straight forward ways the dominant political parties of America today have the system seemingly rigged in their favor.

Not saying I agree 100% with all his points, but at the very least this list should enlighten folks on how the electoral system REALLY works in America today..

10 Ways Political Parties Control Your Vote- IVN

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState

A short and sweet piece by RedState's Joe Cunningham on how the Iowa GOP is trying to prop-up the Iowa Straw Poll...



Which considering last election cycle's chaotic "front-runner shuffle" surrounding the Straw Poll and its aftermath, not that shocking that many candidates are choosing to opt-out.





Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState

Saturday, January 31, 2015

New Bloomberg/Des Moines Register Poll: Walker Leads crowded GOP Field

A new poll conducted by Bloomberg News and the Des Moines Register shows just how wide the GOP field of candidates for 2016 really is...

A few stats to keep in mind when reading the results of this poll:

  • 402 Iowans participated in the GOP side of this poll.
  • Those polled are "likely caucus-goers", meaning they are folks likely to participate in the Iowa Caucus this time next year. 
  • Poll was conducted between 26-29 January.


The big "winner" of the GOP side of the poll is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, being the first choice of 15% of those polled. Given his recent performance at the "Freedom Summit" held by Iowa Congressman Steve King earlier this week, this results points to Walker getting his message across to those who walked the summit or followed it in conservative media.

Other solid "honorable mentions" include Senator Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee (who remains quite popular in Iowa even today, 7 years after his caucus win in the 2008).

Also of interest is that Mitt Romney, who quite publicly withdrew from the GOP field yesterday, was the first choice of 13% of those polled. Not bad for a candidate who lost in the Iowa caucus the last two election cycles (though only by a hair this last time around). With his exit, that puts a lot of points up for grabs.

Me being something of a numbers-guys (my day job), I wanted to see the actual poll results for myself to see if there any other interesting tidbits that didn't make it in Bloomberg's article, and sure enough I did.

Here are a few of these "tidbits":

  • Among the likely Democratic caucus-goers, when asked if the GOP did win the White House in 2016, which of their candidates would be the best leaders, Chris Christie (20%), Jeb Bush (19%) and Mitt Romney (15%) came out on top.
  • Mike Huckabee has the highest overall favorable-rating of the GOP field at 66%, with Rand Paul (64%), Rick Perry (64%), and Scott Walker (60%)  right behind him.
  • However, Scott Walker has the highest "Very Favorable" rating by those polled at 32%.
  • Of the much-talked candidates in the media, Jeb Bush and Christie are definitely struggling, with favorable-rating below 50% (46% and 36% respectively).
  • On a personally satisfying note, waste-of-oxygen Donald Trump received an overall favorable-rating of just 26% (good to see I'm in good company with my fellow Iowans).
  • When you take Mitt Romney out of the race, the poll does not show any one candidate getting a large boost in overall support. 

We are roughly one year away from the Iowa Caucuses and as political "veterans" and Iowans well know, what the GOP field looks like today could change is the blink of an eye.

For the moment though, Governor Scott Walker is probably feeling pretty good about his efforts for far...

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Iowa Congressman Steve King: "I can't vote for John Boehner again."- Let the dog-pile begin!

First, my thanks to The Iowa Republican's very own Craig Robinson who posted this fascinating story about an op-ed by  on Breitbart.com today...

Per Breitbart.com:

Well known conservative hardliner Representative Steve King (IA-4) announced publicly today that he will NOT vote for John Boehner to be Speaker of the House of Representatives this coming session.

This is not the first such public statement by GOPers in the House over the last few days (Representatives Gohmert and Yoho have also made similar statements this weekend), but King's maybe the most foreboding in several ways.

Firstly, for folks who haven't following my blog for very long, I have a VERY strong dislike for Representative King (to the be point he sometimes makes me embarrassed to be from the same state, but thankfully not my home district..). I do however, acknowledge that he does hold some sway within Iowa's conservative movement and is NOT to be under-estimated as a political opponent.

So why does his statement against current Speaker of the House John Boehner mean more than these previous statements?

Because of what state Mr. King represents: Iowa.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Steve Scalise, David Duke, and Electability Over Principle | RedState

Kudos to RedState's very own Erik Erickson for this straightforward piece on today's "scandal" over newly elected GOP congressman Steve Scalise (LA 1st District) and a speech he did 12 years ago to a white-supremacist group while he was still a state legislator.

Erickson moves beyond the argument over whether Scalise's single act of speaking to such a group is evidence of racism and hit the GOP leadership where it really hurts:

Putting electability over principles.

Steve Scalise, David Duke, and Electability Over Principle | RedState

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

What's Wrong with Congress Today: Congressman Pleads Guilty to Tax Faud, Refuses to Resign House Seat

First, I want to say kudos to RealClearPolitics' Caitlin Huey-Burns for the informative article that inspired this post...

We are often berated with polls showing just how unpopular Congress is to the vast majority of Americans, but then again, few President's have much luck getting a majority of Americans to give them a proverbial 'thumbs up' for how their doing at their jobs either. So why the fuss?

The sheer scale of the public's disapproval of Congress is what should really catches folks' attention.

In a report released by the good number-crunchers at Gallup last week, 2014 was found to be the second to worst year for congressional approval since 1974. Just for those keeping score back home, only 2013 was a worse year for Congress. On average, Congress' approval rating for 2014 was just 15% (based on roughly a dozen polls taken since January 2014).

Now, before we get into WHY these numbers are so low, let's address one possible complaint out there about such polls. A lot of folks reading this are probably thinking, "so what, Congress has always been horribly unpopular".

Not true as it turns (something that surprised even me!)..

Also per the good folks at Gallup, while Congress has only rarely has the approval of a majority of Americans (occurring during the years immediately after the 9/11 terror attacks), they regularly had yearly average approval in the 35-50% range during the mid to latter-half of the 1990s.

There were also a few years where their ratings were as terrible as the last few years (1979 and 1992 specifically), they have never before been so consistently low year after year as they have been recently.

But here's what the scary truth is: Many in Congress couldn't care less.

How do I know that? Because of stories like that inspired this post today on RealClearPolitics.

Rep. Grimm of New York (R) has recently pleaded GUILTY to a felony tax fraud charge and also issued a "statement of facts" that acknowledges guilt in several other related charges (ranging from lying under oath to hiring undocumented immigrants), carrying a possible prison sentence of up to 36 months.

BUT he doesn't feel at this time that he could resign he newly re-elected House seat anytime soon.

That's right folks, this guy was just re-elected (rather comfortably I might add) to another 2-year term in Congress. What's worse is that these charges were known during much of the campaign and were (not surprisingly) used by his Democratic opponent in attack ads, but were not enough to scare off his constituents from voting..

Even with all these potentially damning legal charges against him during an election year, this former FBI agent won re-election by a 13 point margin.

So, wins re-election with 20 criminal charges filed against him, pleads guilty to one felony charge and de facto admits to the other 19 charges just 6 weeks after the election (convenient as hell), but thinks he is perfectly able and obligated to continue serving in Congress for the next 2 years.

THAT...is your tax dollars at work folks.

Dirtbags like Rep. Grimm are I fear, not the exception BUT the rule. Just as we saw in Texas' now infamous District Attorney-DUI showdown, regardless of party affiliation, many politicians in America today seem to be think they are ENTITLED to that cushy seat the voters have put them (whether directly or indirectly), illegal activities be damned.

What's potentially even worse is that such a large majority of congressional district voters seemed perfectly OK with looking past their charges during his campaign. Was it a "better the devil you know" situation or just blame complacency on the voters in his district?

Either way, just goes to show that some politicians will try to get away with just about anything to win your vote and sadly, far too many of us are just along with it, which makes US part of what's wrong with Congress today..


DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Can Jeb Bush win Iowa? - POLITICO

With talk of the next presidential election cycle starting to heat up, focus will begin to increase the how many the potential contenders could perform in the early background states...

..and for better or worse, my home state of Iowa is one of those battleground states and as such, it is finding its way in the political news ALREADY..don't they know most Iowans barely surprised the 2014 election cycle without throwing their remotes at their televisions?

Regardless, POLITICO's James Hohmann has made the argument is his piece published today that former Florida governor Jeb Bush should NOT be underestimated in early states like Iowa. On the flip side, neither should anyone assume his name recognition will win him votes by that alone..

My take:

Bush, likely to get beat over the head with the, "any immigration reform without mass deportation is AMNESTY!" frenzy from pathetic partisans on the Right, will definitely have his work cut out for him among Iowa GOPers, who have a strong activist wing.

On the other hand, in a general election, I feel very strongly that Jeb Bush could win my home state as he could not only win most of the GOP vote but also has a good chance of winning a solid share of the state's moderates.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Gov. Branstad seeks to end Iowa GOP straw poll - New York News

Branstad seeks to end Iowa GOP straw poll - New York News


In this interesting piece of political news from home, Republican Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa is pushing to end something of a GOP tradition in Iowa presidential politics: the Ames Straw Poll.

This poll, which is often a rallying point for hot-blooded supporters of the GOP's more "colorful" candidates, has been a tradition for over three decades..but it also has many critics.

For one, at least since I have been following politics, the Ames Straw Poll is, to be blunt, absolute rubbish..especially at predicting who will win Iowa's presidential caucus.

Over those same three decades, the Ames Straw Poll has only occasionally predicted the correct caucus results in the state and in the last two presidential cycles has been popularized by the supports of more extreme or 'off-the-wall' GOP contenders, such as Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul.

So as a good gauge for seeing who the real contenders are for the GOP, the Ames Straw Poll doesn't seem to be of much help, which does make one wonder what the point of it really is.

If the poll doesn't seem to help get our name out in Iowa and win you the caucus, then why bother?

Kudos to the Associated Press' Catherine Lucey for this story (re-posted in the New York News).