Sen. Joni Ernst Small Gov't Hypocrisy? Ernst's Family Received $460K in Fed Farm Subsidies

Sen. Joni Ernst’s family actually received more than $460,000 in federal subsidies

Yet another example of folks who make a leaving preaching against government subsidizing too many aspects of American's lives...except those connected to the politician of course.

Being from Iowa, I can tell you that anyone trying to speak out against farm subsidies is NOT going to be a very popular person with many Iowa farmers and thus most politicians try to steer away from the topic.

But if your claim to political fame is talking about how "simple" your life was growing up and use that to tell Americans they don't need the federal government $ to get somewhere in life, you might want to rethink your message when your family's livelihood is in part subsidized by the federal government..

Who Voted How on 'Cromnibus' Bill? Have a Look for Yourself!

Given how much the "Cromnibus" spending bill was talked about over the last few days and the last-minute Senate vote last night approving the bill, an observer may be wondering.."how did my Senator vote?"

Well, wonder no more!

Thanks to the good folks at govtrack.us, you can see the state-by-state breakdown for how each of the 96 senators on the floor last night actually voted.

Sites like GovTrack are an invaluable source for those who want to not only remain informed about how folks in Congress are actually voting, but also providing a handy fact-checking tool for  the next election cycle who the usual game of finger-point on who voted for what begins..

For my part, I found it quite interesting that both current U.S. Senators from my home state of Iowa (Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Todd Harkin) voted "nay" on the bill, though I suspect for VERY different reasons..

Remember folks, an informed electorate is a dangerous electorate, if you're a member of Congress that is..

Further Proof that American Politics are getting Ugly..REAL Ugly

If you were watching Fox News on election night last week, you probably saw an exchange occur repeated between commentator Juan Williams and several of the news' panel's more, "conservative" members (seems oxymoronic to have to say so considering this is Fox we're talking about, but bear with me).

The argument that Juan Williams was trying to make early on in the evening was that the results of the election thus far were largely due to an "anti-incumbent" sentiment and since the Democrats had more Senate seats up for grabs, they were bound to lose to some degree because of its sentiment.

Problem was, as the other members of the panel pointed out, even GOP incumbents (including those not really popular in their respective states such as Mitch McConnell) were not only winning but winning with fair margins.

So while Juan Williams may have been wrong in trying to apply this "anti-incumbent" sentiment to the Democrat's eventual defeat, that fact that Senate candidates who are normally not popular with their constituents were fairly easily winning re-election is something to make note of.

The basic logic of elections is this: if the politician is unpopular before the election cycle starts, he/she will probably not have an easy time winning re-election.

But as Senator Mitch McConnell can testify, that is not always the case, not by a long shot.

Further, even in some open Senate races, such as Iowa's seat vied for by Democrat Bruce Braley and GOPer Joni Ernst, neither candidate had a reliably strong lead (let alone pulling more than 50% in a majority of polls) going into election night. Regardless of this, Joni Ernst beat her Democratic opponent by roughly 10 points and won just over 52% of the vote.

This "phenomenon" was explored today by Politico's Maggie Haberman here.

More or less, the political reality of elections works out like this: As long as your polling numbers are better than your opponents, you can win a majority of the voters' support.

What does this really mean?

Well, a nasty by-product of this reality is you can wage a nasty, cutthroat, and downright hateful campaign against your opponent, and as long as enough voters buy what you're selling and like your opponent just a little less than you, you can win. Hence the rise in such election campaign strategies (often times carried out by "unofficially affiliated" Super PACs).

And you wonder why so few politicians these days wage so-called "clean campaigns", which seek to minimize personal attacks on your opponent and aim more to educate voters on your own political stances...

Welcome to the current political reality in America folks, for better or..or just for worse.

DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 

Things to Remember after Election Night..

Things to Remember After Election Night...

Regardless of which party does come out on top at the end of the night (GOP just 3 seats away from a simple 51-seat majority as I type this), there are going to be some major challenges for the Senate when they come back early next year. Here are just a few of those:

• IF the GOP manages to win control of the Senate, it's not yet guaranteed that current Minority Leader (and re-elected tonight) Mitch McConnell will end up being the new Majority Leader. He is still fairly unpopular in the more conservative and Tea-Partier sections of the GOP, that opposition at least partially headed by junior Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. That said, given his strong finish (~10-11 point win over his opponent), trying to move him off that top position may be trickier than his enemies within the GOP originally thought. 

• IF the GOP fails to win majority control of the Senate, we will likely witness a level of GOPers "eating their own" much greater than after Mitt Romney's loss in 2012..No party does it better!

• Even if the nights turns out really great for the GOP, it doesn't seem likely they will have the same kind of majority the Democrats had going in and thus one has to wonder how effectively the GOP will be able to run the Senate. Harry Reid with a relatively small majority was able to successfully defeat the GOP at seemingly every turn for many years now. Folks may despise Mr. Reid, most political wonks will tell you all day long that he IS an "effective" Majority Leader in that he is very capable of stepping his opposition from having their voice heard. Can Mitch McConnell (or some one else) do the same once in power?

• Expect President Obama to attempt to "make nice" with the GOP in the next few months and do so very publicly. Why? Because if they spur him while he is so publicly reaching out to them, he could garner additional support for further "executive actions". Further, with the GOP potentially in control of both houses of Congress, the term "lame duck" is going to really start to get thrown around (except for at FoxNews where they have been chatting it up for months now..). What better way to remind folks he is still there than a political showdown?
• May not actually know the final tally by tonight's end or even by tomorrow. Louisiana's election could turn into a run-off that goes into NEXT YEAR..

• In addition, while we will all be glad to NOT have to see any more nasty and idiotic political ads on TV for at least a little while, we should expect talk of 2016's presidential election almost IMMEDIATELY..For better or worse.

Overall, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that this year's midterm congressional elections are the most watched and most participated in for many years (we'll wait for some actual data to back-up that up or not). That, in its own right, is a pretty big deal in American politics.
Generally, midterms do not have the same levels of turnout as Presidential elections, not even by a long shot and yet this one is potentially going to have an even bigger impact than the GOP's return to power in the House back in 2010.

For those who did vote in tonight's elections across the country, kudos to you for doing your part to move the political system and actively participating in a political system that far too many see as irreversibly corrupt and pointless.

For those slackers who did NOT vote in this election, here something to keep in mind:
You don't get to whine and bitch about how the federal government is screwing you over if you are too lazy to get off your duff and do something about it.

If you think the government is doing everything wrong, stop just being part of the idiotic and childish echo chamber and try and enact some "change" yourself.

DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 

Des Moines Register Pollster Gets Flak for latest Poll

Not too surprising, the latest Des Moines Register poll released this past week, which showed GOP candidate Joni Ernst 7 points ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley, has been treated with some suspicion and criticism over the last few days.

The brunt of this flak has been directed at pollster J. Ann Selzer, but she seems to be taking it all in stride...


Des Moines Register pollster on criticism of Senate numbers

BREAKING Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst takes 7-point Lead

Kudos to The Des Moines Register for breaking this story..

On a cautionary note, this is just ONE poll, but given we are less than 3 days away from the vote, the "shock value" of this poll will definitely be felt in the Braley camp..

Joni Ernst takes a 7-point Lead- The Des Moines Register

Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

The growing possibility of BOTH Iowa members to the U.S. Senate being Republicans has definitely got Democrats back home in Iowa a wee bit nervous..


Kudos to POLITICO's Katie Glueck for this rather timely piece.



Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

Odds looking good for GOP with 5 Days to Go- FiveThirtyEight Politics

For those who don't know what FiveThirtyEight is, you really are missing out on one of the best sources out there for solid political metrics...

What are political metrics you ask? Simple: Polling Data. 

Normally, polling data isn't terribly exciting stuff (unless you're a nerd for numbers like myself), but world-famous pollster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is one of the best in the business and does so in a way that is, thankfully, presented in such a way that makes it fairly easy to understand for wonks and everyday folks alike. 

Without going into too much depth, FiveThirtyEight compiles information from many hundreds of polls across the nation and in this election cycle, focusing primarily on the odds of which major party will gain or retain control of the United States Senate. 

Now, I invite you to take a gander at today's latest update at the FiveThirtyEight's site giving the current odds of which party will come out victorious in next week's elections...

Though if you're a die-hard Democrat and are at all squeamish, might not be the best idea..

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Joni Ernst explains missed edit board - POLITICO

Politico's Jonathan Topaz tackles a recent political ruffle that occurred in Iowa's much talked about U.S. Senate race: Why did the GOP candidate Joni Ernst skip a scheduled interview with the state's biggest newspaper?



Without giving too much away from Mr. Topaz's piece, the idea of The Des Moines Register has a particular political alignment is NOT new. I have heard it my whole life back home about how much of a "liberal rag" the paper was. However, that doesn't necessarily mean it's true, as the paper has indeed endorsed GOP candidates for state-wide and nation-wide office in the past. Notably, during the GOP primary in Iowa, the paper endorsed none other than Joni Ernst!





Joni Ernst explains missed edit board

The Most Wide-Open Senate Election in a Decade- POLITICO

The most wide-open Senate election in a decade

Des Moines Register Endorses Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate

The editorial board of Iowa's most prominent newspaper has just announced their endorsement for the U.S. Senate race..just in time for tomorrow's Sunday paper! (Insider-Iowa kind of joke there)

Endorsement: Bruce Braley is Better Choice

200,000 Iowans have already voted | Politics - KCCI Home

Like they used to say in Chicago-style politics, "vote early and vote often!"



Just kidding folks!



200,000 Iowans have already voted | Politics - KCCI Home

NY Times article documents urban shift in Iowa | Local News - KCCI Home

Interesting article via The New York Times described by one of Iowa's two major news organizations..



Without giving too much away, the main jist of the article is concerning how Iowa is no longer the farming-centric state it once was. For those outside of Iowa, this may be a bit surprising, but for someone who was born and raised there, we have know this harsh truth for some time.



Small, family-owned/operated farms are now a fading reality (though some families, like my own, still hold on proudly to the farms they have lived on for many decades, some even older!). The population and lifestyle in Iowa has been shifting to the major metropolitan areas, especially around the capital city of Des Moines for many years now, even though the state's actual population growth has been fairly minor (causing Iowa to go from having five congressional districts prior to the last census to just four today).



On the other hand, Iowa is one of the nation's leading users of wind-power (the damn things are all over the state now, even in the rolling hills of my native southern Iowa) and has one of the nation's lowest unemployment rates.



And as more Iowans move to urban areas, the "traditional" element that drives politics there is bound to change as well and this all factors into making this years Senate race one of the most watched in the nation..





NY Times article documents urban shift in Iowa | Local News - KCCI Home

Roberts misses two-thirds of ag committee meetings since 2000 | CJOnline.com

Roberts misses two-thirds of ag committee meetings since 2000 | CJOnline.com



Regardless of whether he had perfectly good reasons for missing these meetings, such "news" is a potential PR disaster for a Senator from a rural state like Kansas..

EXCLUSIVE: Iowa Senate shocker — contracts awarded to Joni Ernst’s father raise conflict of interest questions

EXCLUSIVE: Iowa Senate shocker — contracts awarded to Joni Ernst’s father raise conflict of interest questions



Just when you thoughts the Iowa Senate race couldn't get more interesting..the plot thickens!

Watch Full Iowa Senate Debate!

Tonight, we saw the first televised debate in one of the mostly closely watched Senate race this election cycle, between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst.

Hosted and moderated by local TV news station KCCI and concluded only a short time ago.

Thankfully, KCCI was kind enough to post the debate, in full, to their website..

Enjoy!

Iowa U.S. Senate Debate - KCCI News

Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst Now Leads Bruce Braley for Senate

I'll keep this introduction short, the latest Des Moines Register poll in Iowa for the first time in many months actually shows one of the two candidates in the lead. For Democrats though, hoping to keep control of the U.S. Senate, it's not exactly good news..

For details, I leave you in the very capable hands of Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register..

Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst now leads Bruce Braley for Senate

Could a "True" Independent Really Win a US Senate Seat?

For many in America this political season, one of the most exciting races this year (for political nerds like myself at least) is the U.S. Senate race in Kansas. Why?

In this contest, political wounded Pat Roberts (Republican) is fighting to keep his Senate seat, first from his fellow Republicans (who deemed him not NEARLY conservative enough) and now against, of all things, an Independent.

For a bit of background for the readers who may not be familiar with this race, here are some basic facts to be aware of (1):

• Pat Roberts has occupied this Senate seat since 1996 and is attempting to win his 4th term.
• Roberts did NOT face an easy nomination process. Not only did he have to contend with several strong primary challenges, his victory over them was with only 48.1% of the vote. 
• Further, his opposition was not that widely dispersed as one of his challengers, Milton Wolf, managed to get 40.8% of the primary vote. 
• The top Democratic challenger, Chad Taylor, scarcely did much better. While he had only one primary challenger to contend with (in which he won 52% of the vote), it doesn't do you much good to win your party's vote when you have very little state-wide support. 
• As such, Chad Taylor made the shocking announcement that just a few months before the November vote, he was dropping out of the race.
• This was not necessarily much a blessing to Roberts however, as his own state-wide support was hardly much better than the Democrat's. 
• Enter into the equation Greg Orman: Officially a "non-affiliated candidate", who in 2008 ran in the Democratic primary to unseat Roberts but chose to withdraw before the Democratic primary. He has never held political office before and has spent his adult life working for several electrical companies in Kansas.

So, the main question many of you may be wondering is: So what if an "independent" is running for a U.S. Senate seat?

Simple answer: Because he could actually win.

A dug-in electorate bodes poorly for the Democrats in November

Kudos to Pew Research Center's Andrew Kohut for this "numbers piece" on the growing challenges the Democrats will have to pull any sort of victory this November for the mid-term elections.



Without giving too much away from the article, the President doesn't seem to be doing his fellow members of the Democratic party in Congress any favors in the polls..



A dug-in electorate bodes poorly for the Democrats in November