Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...

With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.

Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.

My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.


Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Hard to argue with the chances of an article about 2016 GOP hopeful Donald Trump and my home state of Iowa getting posted here..

This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.

As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.

My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".

True enough!

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Sanders Gaining on Clinton in Iowa

Today a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll was released and for the Democratic side of the race, it's a mixed bag.

For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.

She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?

For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.

Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..

Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near

Here is the actual polling data:

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31.pdf

#SOSStrawPoll at Iowa State Fair Results: Bernie Leads!

One of the benefits/irritations of being from Iowa is that every four years you get to explain why the Iowa State Fair is all over the national news.

Because of a little thing called the Iowa Caucus, which will be early next year, and is the first-in-the-nation vote for the presidential candidates from both parties. 

And one of the "attractions" at this year's State Fair is an informal (and I would assume, "unscientific") poll taken by Iowa's Secretary of State. As of Saturday night, over 2000 participants from the State Fair have taken part in the poll and here are the results:

The obvious bit that jumps out at your from this poll is Bernie Sanders leader over Hillary Clinton and also the fact that far more votes for Republican candidates have taken place than for the Democrats.

However, I have to mention that this is apparently an unscientific poll and thus should be taken with a rather large grain of salt...

Interesting results nonetheless..

Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState

A short and sweet piece by RedState's Joe Cunningham on how the Iowa GOP is trying to prop-up the Iowa Straw Poll...



Which considering last election cycle's chaotic "front-runner shuffle" surrounding the Straw Poll and its aftermath, not that shocking that many candidates are choosing to opt-out.





Iowa GOP doubles down on pay-to-play | RedState

Democratic Contender O'Malley brings his Message to Iowa

One thing that seems inevitable about the coming Presidential election cycle was that while there is going to be a wide array of GOP candidates battling for their party's nomination, the odds of any real competition in Democratic party seemed low. 

For better or worse, it didn't seems like there was going to be much competition to the presumed front-runner, Hillary Clinton.

But, that could be changing. 

With the ongoing 'scandal' of Clinton's use of a personal email service for his official correspondence as Secretary of State, at least one of the likely Democratic contenders is taking advantage of the situation: former Maryland Governor O'Malley.

O'Malley has been a suspected contender for the Democratic nomination for some time, but was rarely considered a serious threat to a presumed campaign of Hillary Clinton. So far, his main theme has been a critique of Wall Street and how the federal government hasn't done nearly enough to hold 'big banks' responsible for their actions during the 2008 crash and preventing such another crash in the future. 

If that sounds familiar, it should, since much of O'Malley's positions are reminiscent of another possible Democratic contender, Senator Elizabeth Warren. However, Warren has repeated stated she won't seek the nomination. We'll see if that stance lasts...

O'Malley on the other hand is making it pretty clear of his intentions. Nothing says "I want to run for President" than a visit to my home state of Iowa.

In addition to his visits to the cities of Davenport, Tipton, and Council Bluffs, he also penned an op-ed piece for the state's largest newspaper, The Des Moines Register. 

While O'Malley's chances of taking the nomination from Hillary Clinton seem low, you certainly can't fault him for making the best of her recent bit of bad press and getting his name out there as much as possible.

Personally, I suspect O'Malley will make a bigger splash in the Democratic race than most assume..

Kudos to John Wagner of The Washington Post for his recent piece on O'Malley's visit to Iowa. 

New Bloomberg/Des Moines Register Poll: Walker Leads crowded GOP Field

A new poll conducted by Bloomberg News and the Des Moines Register shows just how wide the GOP field of candidates for 2016 really is...

A few stats to keep in mind when reading the results of this poll:

• 402 Iowans participated in the GOP side of this poll.
• Those polled are "likely caucus-goers", meaning they are folks likely to participate in the Iowa Caucus this time next year. 
• Poll was conducted between 26-29 January.

The big "winner" of the GOP side of the poll is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, being the first choice of 15% of those polled. Given his recent performance at the "Freedom Summit" held by Iowa Congressman Steve King earlier this week, this results points to Walker getting his message across to those who walked the summit or followed it in conservative media.

Other solid "honorable mentions" include Senator Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee (who remains quite popular in Iowa even today, 7 years after his caucus win in the 2008).

Also of interest is that Mitt Romney, who quite publicly withdrew from the GOP field yesterday, was the first choice of 13% of those polled. Not bad for a candidate who lost in the Iowa caucus the last two election cycles (though only by a hair this last time around). With his exit, that puts a lot of points up for grabs.

Me being something of a numbers-guys (my day job), I wanted to see the actual poll results for myself to see if there any other interesting tidbits that didn't make it in Bloomberg's article, and sure enough I did.

Here are a few of these "tidbits":

• Among the likely Democratic caucus-goers, when asked if the GOP did win the White House in 2016, which of their candidates would be the best leaders, Chris Christie (20%), Jeb Bush (19%) and Mitt Romney (15%) came out on top.
• Mike Huckabee has the highest overall favorable-rating of the GOP field at 66%, with Rand Paul (64%), Rick Perry (64%), and Scott Walker (60%)  right behind him.
• However, Scott Walker has the highest "Very Favorable" rating by those polled at 32%.
• Of the much-talked candidates in the media, Jeb Bush and Christie are definitely struggling, with favorable-rating below 50% (46% and 36% respectively).
• On a personally satisfying note, waste-of-oxygen Donald Trump received an overall favorable-rating of just 26% (good to see I'm in good company with my fellow Iowans).
• When you take Mitt Romney out of the race, the poll does not show any one candidate getting a large boost in overall support. 

We are roughly one year away from the Iowa Caucuses and as political "veterans" and Iowans well know, what the GOP field looks like today could change is the blink of an eye.

For the moment though, Governor Scott Walker is probably feeling pretty good about his efforts for far...

Liberals vs Conservatives: Response to the State of the Union

In a change of pace, instead of me commenting on the President's State of the Union speech tonight, I instead want to give you folks an idea of how the two ends of the American political spectrum look at the same speech..(and then give my thoughts on the speech).

First, in the "liberal" corner, we have Ezra Klein of Vox.com:

The most important sentence in Obama's 2015 State of the Union- Vox

And in the "conservative" corner, we have Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard:

Obama's Defiant Speech- The Weekly Standard

Interestingly enough, both writers do seem to agree on one thing: The President's speech tonight was NOT one of concession or much compromise. The speech gave the impression of a President who is looking to advance a "new" agenda and be damned what happened last November...

For me, I do have to respect the President's defiance of last November's loss for his party and still propose a wide new agenda that he has to know will likely never be passed before he leaves office. He could talked more compromise given his party's weakened position, but not this President.

That being said, one does have to wonder why real purpose the President thinks this speech will serve, if any, in the long run.

A defiant speech in the face of recent political defeat is great for rallying the troops but could eventually end up wreak of pointless "political theater" to the average voter, who will then be wondering if you he/she will ever get those 90 minutes of their lives back...

On a final note, you may be surprised to hear that I don't really have much to say about my home state's new senator, Joni Ernst, having her shot at the GOP response to the SOTU. I generally don't have anything "nasty" to say about Senator Ernst, except maybe this: The fact she seems to rarely start a speech without mentioning that she is a "mother" and a "soldier" honestly bothers me. I can't really put my finger on it, but something about how she says it and the frequency in which she thinks we need to be reminded of it strikes me as run-of-the-mill campaign catch-phrase for selling political ads. I actually like her stories about growing up in rural Iowa (I can somewhat relate), but that other bit just doesn't come off as being as genuine...

Rant over, have a great week ya'll!

DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 

Iowa Congressman Steve King: "I can't vote for John Boehner again."- Let the dog-pile begin!

First, my thanks to The Iowa Republican's very own Craig Robinson who posted this fascinating story about an op-ed by  on Breitbart.com today...

Per Breitbart.com:

Well known conservative hardliner Representative Steve King (IA-4) announced publicly today that he will NOT vote for John Boehner to be Speaker of the House of Representatives this coming session.

This is not the first such public statement by GOPers in the House over the last few days (Representatives Gohmert and Yoho have also made similar statements this weekend), but King's maybe the most foreboding in several ways.

Firstly, for folks who haven't following my blog for very long, I have a VERY strong dislike for Representative King (to the be point he sometimes makes me embarrassed to be from the same state, but thankfully not my home district..). I do however, acknowledge that he does hold some sway within Iowa's conservative movement and is NOT to be under-estimated as a political opponent.

So why does his statement against current Speaker of the House John Boehner mean more than these previous statements?

Because of what state Mr. King represents: Iowa.

Can Jeb Bush win Iowa? - POLITICO

With talk of the next presidential election cycle starting to heat up, focus will begin to increase the how many the potential contenders could perform in the early background states...

..and for better or worse, my home state of Iowa is one of those battleground states and as such, it is finding its way in the political news ALREADY..don't they know most Iowans barely surprised the 2014 election cycle without throwing their remotes at their televisions?

Regardless, POLITICO's James Hohmann has made the argument is his piece published today that former Florida governor Jeb Bush should NOT be underestimated in early states like Iowa. On the flip side, neither should anyone assume his name recognition will win him votes by that alone..

My take:

Bush, likely to get beat over the head with the, "any immigration reform without mass deportation is AMNESTY!" frenzy from pathetic partisans on the Right, will definitely have his work cut out for him among Iowa GOPers, who have a strong activist wing.

On the other hand, in a general election, I feel very strongly that Jeb Bush could win my home state as he could not only win most of the GOP vote but also has a good chance of winning a solid share of the state's moderates.

Gov. Branstad seeks to end Iowa GOP straw poll - New York News

Branstad seeks to end Iowa GOP straw poll - New York News


In this interesting piece of political news from home, Republican Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa is pushing to end something of a GOP tradition in Iowa presidential politics: the Ames Straw Poll.

This poll, which is often a rallying point for hot-blooded supporters of the GOP's more "colorful" candidates, has been a tradition for over three decades..but it also has many critics.

For one, at least since I have been following politics, the Ames Straw Poll is, to be blunt, absolute rubbish..especially at predicting who will win Iowa's presidential caucus.

Over those same three decades, the Ames Straw Poll has only occasionally predicted the correct caucus results in the state and in the last two presidential cycles has been popularized by the supports of more extreme or 'off-the-wall' GOP contenders, such as Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul.

So as a good gauge for seeing who the real contenders are for the GOP, the Ames Straw Poll doesn't seem to be of much help, which does make one wonder what the point of it really is.

If the poll doesn't seem to help get our name out in Iowa and win you the caucus, then why bother?

Kudos to the Associated Press' Catherine Lucey for this story (re-posted in the New York News).

Newly re-elected GOP Governor wants to RAISE Gas Tax..wait, what?

That's right folks, just two days after winning a new 4-year term as Governor of the State of Iowa, Terry Branstad has proposed raising the state's gasoline tax..

Branstad: Transportation funding will be priority in 2015- Des Moines Register

Now a Republican proposing a tax INCREASE may sound a bit counter-intuitive, but Governor Branstad's reasons for such a tax are something most folks care about: better roads and bridges.

And while a lot of folks in Iowa will likely be very happy to have better roads, I wonder if the Governor may have slightly over-estimated how smoothly this will go over with Iowans as a whole.

Des Moines Register Pollster Gets Flak for latest Poll

Not too surprising, the latest Des Moines Register poll released this past week, which showed GOP candidate Joni Ernst 7 points ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley, has been treated with some suspicion and criticism over the last few days.

The brunt of this flak has been directed at pollster J. Ann Selzer, but she seems to be taking it all in stride...


Des Moines Register pollster on criticism of Senate numbers

BREAKING Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst takes 7-point Lead

Kudos to The Des Moines Register for breaking this story..

On a cautionary note, this is just ONE poll, but given we are less than 3 days away from the vote, the "shock value" of this poll will definitely be felt in the Braley camp..

Joni Ernst takes a 7-point Lead- The Des Moines Register

Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

The growing possibility of BOTH Iowa members to the U.S. Senate being Republicans has definitely got Democrats back home in Iowa a wee bit nervous..


Kudos to POLITICO's Katie Glueck for this rather timely piece.



Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

Joni Ernst explains missed edit board - POLITICO

Politico's Jonathan Topaz tackles a recent political ruffle that occurred in Iowa's much talked about U.S. Senate race: Why did the GOP candidate Joni Ernst skip a scheduled interview with the state's biggest newspaper?



Without giving too much away from Mr. Topaz's piece, the idea of The Des Moines Register has a particular political alignment is NOT new. I have heard it my whole life back home about how much of a "liberal rag" the paper was. However, that doesn't necessarily mean it's true, as the paper has indeed endorsed GOP candidates for state-wide and nation-wide office in the past. Notably, during the GOP primary in Iowa, the paper endorsed none other than Joni Ernst!





Joni Ernst explains missed edit board

Des Moines Register Endorses Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate

The editorial board of Iowa's most prominent newspaper has just announced their endorsement for the U.S. Senate race..just in time for tomorrow's Sunday paper! (Insider-Iowa kind of joke there)

Endorsement: Bruce Braley is Better Choice

200,000 Iowans have already voted | Politics - KCCI Home

Like they used to say in Chicago-style politics, "vote early and vote often!"



Just kidding folks!



200,000 Iowans have already voted | Politics - KCCI Home

NY Times article documents urban shift in Iowa | Local News - KCCI Home

Interesting article via The New York Times described by one of Iowa's two major news organizations..



Without giving too much away, the main jist of the article is concerning how Iowa is no longer the farming-centric state it once was. For those outside of Iowa, this may be a bit surprising, but for someone who was born and raised there, we have know this harsh truth for some time.



Small, family-owned/operated farms are now a fading reality (though some families, like my own, still hold on proudly to the farms they have lived on for many decades, some even older!). The population and lifestyle in Iowa has been shifting to the major metropolitan areas, especially around the capital city of Des Moines for many years now, even though the state's actual population growth has been fairly minor (causing Iowa to go from having five congressional districts prior to the last census to just four today).



On the other hand, Iowa is one of the nation's leading users of wind-power (the damn things are all over the state now, even in the rolling hills of my native southern Iowa) and has one of the nation's lowest unemployment rates.



And as more Iowans move to urban areas, the "traditional" element that drives politics there is bound to change as well and this all factors into making this years Senate race one of the most watched in the nation..





NY Times article documents urban shift in Iowa | Local News - KCCI Home

EXCLUSIVE: Iowa Senate shocker — contracts awarded to Joni Ernst’s father raise conflict of interest questions

EXCLUSIVE: Iowa Senate shocker — contracts awarded to Joni Ernst’s father raise conflict of interest questions



Just when you thoughts the Iowa Senate race couldn't get more interesting..the plot thickens!