Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27.
What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).
For Democrats:
Favorability:
- Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has similar overall numbers (75% vs 74% among Democrats).
- One major difference between these two in favorability is with Independents polled. Sanders' overall favorability is 47% vs 33% for Clinton. Most damning, 43% have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Hillary Clinton, more than twice what Sanders' got.
Enthusiasm:
> It's been a long-held media "truth" that enthusiasm is an advantage Bernie Sanders has over Hillary Clinton, but this new poll would provide evidence to the contrary.
- 47% of Democrats are enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton being a candidate
- 38% of Democrats are enthusiastic about Bernie Sanders being a candidate
> Once again though, Independents are showing their love for Sanders:
- 25% are enthusiastic about Sanders vs 9% for Clinton
Could win the General in November?:
> Definitely an area of Clinton advantage:
- 88% of Democrats believe Clinton "could possibly win" in the general election
- 67% of Democrats believe Sanders "could possibly win" in the general election
> Here's the painful bit for Sanders:
- Democrats favor Clinton as the "better choice" for the general election to Sanders, 66% to 25%
Ready to be Commander-in-Chief?
> Another area of Clinton strength
- 80% feel Clinton is ready to be CinC
- 55% feel Sanders is ready to be CinC
Now for GOPers...
Favorability:
- Donald Trump (67%) and Marco Rubio (65%) top this category, with Ted Cruz (53%) coming in dead-last for the remaining field.
- Independents favor Donald Trump and Ben Carson (both at 32%), with Marco Rubio coming in at a close 31%
Enthusiasm:
> Definite dominance for the Donald
- 45% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Donald Trump
- 30% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Marco Rubio
- 25% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Ted Cruz
Could win the General in November?:
> Another area of strength for the Donald, as well as Rubio
- 84% of Republicans believe Donald Trump "could possibly win" the general election
- 71% of Republicans believe Marco Rubio "could possibly win" the general election
- 61% of Republicans believe Ted Cruz "could possibly win" the general election
> When given a more straightforward choice of which candidate would be the "best choice" for winning in November...
- 60% of Republicans picked Donald Trump
- Next closest is Marco Rubio, at just 16%
Ready to be Commander-in-Chief?
- 61% feel Donald Trump is ready to be CinC
- 53% feel Marco Rubio is ready to be CinC
- 51% feel Ted Cruz is ready to be CinC
Preferred GOP Nominee (Likely Primary voters)
- 44% chose Donald Trump
- 21% chose Ted Cruz
- 17% chose Marco Rubio
2nd Choices Anyone? (Likely Primary voters)
- 27% would choose Marco Rubio as their 2nd choice
- 20% would choose Ted Cruz as their 2nd choice
- 18% would choose John Kaisch as their 2nd choice
- 12% would choose Donald Trump (last place for once..)
And here's a bit of bad news for the Marco Rubio crowd, especially those who think if he could win if it was just him vs the Donald..
Rubio vs Trump:
Likely Primary Voters
- 57% for Trump
- 43% for Rubio
Folks who ID'd as Republicans:
- 56% for Trump
- 44% for Rubio
Ted Cruz has just as bad of odds in a one on one fight...
Cruz vs Trump:
Likely Primary Voters
- 58% for Trump
- 42% for Cruz
Folks who ID'd as Republicans:
- 61% for Trump
- 39% for Cruz
Here is, IMHO, the most surprising result of this poll.
Clinton vs Trump:
- 42% to 38% (Clinton +4)
Clinton vs Cruz:
- 45% to 33% (Clinton +12)
Clinton vs Rubio:
- 44% to 34% (Clinton +10)
Conventional wisdom (and a good number of polls) have previously shown that Marco Rubio outperforming his GOP rivals in a match up with Hillary Clinton. This poll has however, shown a clear advantage to Donald Trump in such a match up.
This is just one poll, but we a very recent one. We;ll have to wait and see if this is the beginning of a good trend for the Donald or an statistical anomaly....
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