Sunday, February 28, 2016

Latest YouGov Polling Results: Mixed News All Around

Seems it took a very detailed new 2016 Presidential poll to get me out of hiding and posting again...

Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27. 

What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).

For Democrats:


- Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has similar overall numbers (75% vs 74% among Democrats). 
- One major difference between these two in favorability is with Independents polled. Sanders' overall favorability is 47% vs 33% for Clinton. Most damning, 43% have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Hillary Clinton, more than twice what Sanders' got. 


> It's been a long-held media "truth" that enthusiasm is an advantage Bernie Sanders has over Hillary Clinton, but this new poll would provide evidence to the contrary. 
- 47% of Democrats are enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton being a candidate
- 38% of Democrats are enthusiastic about Bernie Sanders being a candidate
> Once again though, Independents are showing their love for Sanders:
- 25% are enthusiastic about Sanders vs 9% for Clinton 

Could win the General in November?:

> Definitely an area of Clinton advantage:
- 88% of Democrats believe Clinton "could possibly win" in the general election
- 67% of Democrats believe Sanders "could possibly win" in the general election
> Here's the painful bit for Sanders:
- Democrats favor Clinton as the "better choice" for the general election to Sanders, 66% to 25%

Ready to be Commander-in-Chief?
 > Another area of Clinton strength
- 80% feel Clinton is ready to be CinC
- 55% feel Sanders is ready to be CinC 

Now for GOPers...


- Donald Trump (67%) and Marco Rubio (65%) top this category, with Ted Cruz (53%) coming in dead-last for the remaining field. 
- Independents favor Donald Trump and Ben Carson (both at 32%), with Marco Rubio coming in at a close 31%


> Definite dominance for the Donald
- 45% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Donald Trump
- 30% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Marco Rubio
- 25% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Ted Cruz

Could win the General in November?:

> Another area of strength for the Donald, as well as Rubio
- 84% of Republicans believe Donald Trump "could possibly win" the general election
- 71% of Republicans believe Marco Rubio "could possibly win" the general election
- 61% of Republicans believe Ted Cruz "could possibly win" the general election

> When given a more straightforward choice of which candidate would be the "best choice" for winning in November...
- 60% of Republicans picked Donald Trump
- Next closest is Marco Rubio, at just 16%

Ready to be Commander-in-Chief?

- 61% feel Donald Trump is ready to be CinC
- 53% feel Marco Rubio is ready to be CinC
- 51% feel Ted Cruz is ready to be CinC

Preferred GOP Nominee (Likely Primary voters)

- 44% chose Donald Trump
- 21% chose Ted Cruz
- 17% chose Marco Rubio

2nd Choices Anyone? (Likely Primary voters)

- 27% would choose Marco Rubio as their 2nd choice
- 20% would choose Ted Cruz as their 2nd choice
- 18% would choose John Kaisch as their 2nd choice
- 12% would choose Donald Trump (last place for once..)

And here's a bit of bad news for the Marco Rubio crowd, especially those who think if he could win if it was just him vs the Donald..

Rubio vs Trump:

Likely Primary Voters
- 57% for Trump
- 43% for Rubio

Folks who ID'd as Republicans: 
- 56% for Trump
- 44% for Rubio

Ted Cruz has just as bad of odds in a one on one fight...

Cruz vs Trump:

Likely Primary Voters
- 58% for Trump
- 42% for Cruz

Folks who ID'd as Republicans:
- 61% for Trump
- 39% for Cruz

Here is, IMHO, the most surprising result of this poll.

Clinton vs Trump:
- 42% to 38% (Clinton +4)

Clinton vs Cruz:
- 45% to 33% (Clinton +12)

Clinton vs Rubio:
- 44% to 34% (Clinton +10)

Conventional wisdom (and a good number of polls) have previously shown that Marco Rubio outperforming his GOP rivals in a match up with Hillary Clinton. This poll has however, shown a clear advantage to Donald Trump in such a match up. 

This is just one poll, but we a very recent one. We;ll have to wait and see if this is the beginning of a good trend for the Donald or an statistical anomaly....

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