Monday, October 3, 2011


To say there's been a lot of talk lately about whether New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will run for President or not would be something of an understatement...It seems to be the only thing on political pundit's minds the last few days.

And to be fair, there has been a lot of talk about Chris Christie possibly running for President for some time now, and up until last week Mr. Christie has told reporters and pundits alike that he isn't going to run...But now that seems to be changing.

Not that I could blame Christie for reconsidering his future. Many, including Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard, have stated that while Christie doesn't necessarily have the same amount of experience as many of the other major GOP contenders, now is the arguably the perfect and possibly only time he will have to run and possibly win. Destiny is a tricky thing though..

For one, Christie has the simple problem that by the time of the Presidential election (assuming he wins the nomination of course), he wouldn't have even served a full term as Governor of New Jersey which to some makes him look a bit too opportunistic and lacking in political experience (not that that has stopped Presidential hopefuls before).

Secondly, Christie has the problem that while he does have a pretty strong "fan base", it is not certain that he can win over the majority of the GOP. While very popular for his tough attitude and no non-sense approach to politics, his specific positions on certain issues aren't usually popular with the more conservative branch of the GOP.

Now personally, I'm a little conflicted about Governor Chris Christie. While I don't completely agree with all his political positions, I do like his attitude towards politics and think he would make a good President. The problem I have is I am not sure he can actually win the nomination. I have a distinct feeling that IF he does decide to run, some of his opponents will attempt to label him as "too moderate" for the GOP just as they've done with others. However at this point of political chaos in the GOP field (with no figure getting much more than 25% in recent polls) that it's possible Christie's entry could shake up the field enough for him to win over enough Republicans to win the nomination.

Coincidentally, a poll was just released tonight by the Washington Post/ABC of both Republican-leaning persons and registered Republicans giving a pretty detailed look at the GOP field as of now. For example, it asked people who they would vote for in Chris Christie decided to run AND who they would vote for if he decided not to run. They did the same with Sarah Palin as they are the only two talked about possible GOP contenders who haven't made a final decision to run.

When registered voters were asked if Sarah Palin and Chris Christie were in the GOP "horse race", who they would vote for, Christie received 10% of the vote, coming in fourth behind Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, and Rick Perry (in that order). When Sarah Palin is removed from the equation, Christie grabbed 11% of the vote.

However, as Rick Perry showed when he first entered the race, a new contender can significantly boost his/her numbers at least in the short term (also demonstrated by Rick Perry whose numbers have fallen out in the last week or so). Considering Christie has more of a fan-base than Rick Perry did before he ran (at least in my opinion), I think he could potentially hold on that likely bump in the polls and bump off the most recent "fad" candidate to get a jump in the polls, Herman Cain (who I sincerely hope is a fad/fluke since the man is a near complete idiot). How well he could do from there is anyone guess. Of course, this is only IF Christie decides to run..

And that ladies and gentlemen, is the million dollar question..Should he run or should he not? Only Chris Christie knows, but either way, he needs to decide soon.

Many thanks to Jay Cost for inspiring me to write this piece after my brief hiatus.
Morning Jay: Christie Should Follow Woodrow Wilson—And Run The Weekly Standard

Washington Post/ABC Poll:

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