Saturday, December 31, 2011

First off, Happy New Years to my readers! Technically it isn't 2012 yet but hey, no sense in waiting to celebrate now is there?

But to the gist of this post. In typical anti-climatic fashion, the Des Moines Register GOP Caucus poll was released a day before the Des Moines Register is to be sold in gas stations/stores and delivered to the homes of countless Iowans tomorrow. This poll will likely be one of the last "decent" polls til the actual Iowa Caucus on Tuesday, January 3rd. Why is this poll more "decent" than others? Because instead of just asking Iowa GOPers who they would like to see win the Caucus vote, the Register asked Likely Caucus "goers" who they planted to vote for thus making the poll more accurate than the countless other polls released recently.

The results are as follows (also showing the point rise from last month's poll):

Mitt Romney- 24%, +8
Ron Paul- 22%, +4
Rick Santorum- 15%, +9
Newt Gingrich- 12%, -13
Rick Perry- 11%, +5
Michelle Bachmann- 7%, -1

Sadly, I am not a "trained" or experience analyzing polls. I do feature them often in my posts but I largely only comment on the facts directly mentioned in such polls. For a proper and detailed analysis of this poll and several other recent ones pertaining to the upcoming Iowa Caucus, I give you Nate Silver of the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog:

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