Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Herman's fall and Romney's Nightmare

The last 24 hours or so has been rather interesting in the GOP rat race, perhaps even "fluid" as the media would say (I honestly hate this word now because of how often it is used in politics). Some of the news was predictable, but some...Not so much.

First, as reported on POLITICO last night, a new accuser has come out against Herman Cain in which she claims to have had a 13 year long affair with the GOP hopeful. She broke this story with a local Atlanta, Georgia TV station who were shown cell phone records that showed a number that she claimed was Cain's private phone number. When the reporter texted this number, Herman Cain personally called right back.(1)

Now I have largely remained quiet about Herman Cain's "problems" because I didn't consider worth my time since the whole issue has nothing to do with the man's politics (which is all I am concerned about). I only detail this most recent "problem" because it may be the tipping point for Cain's campaign.

As reported by POLITICO (2), this latest incident has Herman Cain seriously considering pulling out of the race depending on how he call sell this latest "problem" as no different than the rest. Cain's departure, while foreseen by many, will nevertheless have a major impact on the GOP race for the White House. This is because Cain still polls well in many states and his supporters will have to find someone else to throw their weight behind. The question is..Who is that candidate?

As I talked about in my last piece, polls seem to so Newt Gingrich is the candidate to gain the most if Herman Cain finally implodes and by a pretty wide margin. This was reinforced today by a report released by the Public Policy Polling. This report compiled the results of 6 recent GOP polls and found that on average 37% polled would pick Newt Gingrich as their second choice if Herman Cain pulls out of the race while only 13% would pick the other "front runner" Mitt Romney. (3)

Strangely though, Mitt Romney's campaign to date has shown no interest in these polls and is instead focusing on attacking the President as if he was the nominee.(4) Now such a strategy does have benefits since it keeps Romney from attacking his fellow GOPers and giving him a "cleaner" image than earlier in the campaign when he and Rick Perry would constantly clashing. However it also risks making him look out of touch with the GOP voters who aren't so sure the GOP race is all over.

But a new poll out today may make that disconnect look even more apparent..Mainly because of where it taken: New Hampshire. Rasmussen reported today that in a new poll taken in the 1st in the nation primary that Romney's seemingly invincible lead is being wore away at an alarming rate. The breakdown of the poll was as such: Romney 34%, Gingrich 24%, Paul 14%, Huntsman 11%. (5) Now the biggest surprise of this poll isn't Gingrich's rising numbers, it's John Huntsman numbers that are surprising. At 11%, this is Huntsman's best showing yet in any state poll and while he may only be polling 4th, with every gained number he is further chipping away at Romney's lead with a little over a month until the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary.

So indeed, the last 24 hours has been quite exciting for political wonks. I have a sneaking suspension that the next 24 hours will be just as interesting..Stay tuned.



The views and opinions expressed in the above piece are solely those of the author not those of the Modern Whig Party or any other political organization.

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