Showing posts with label midterms. Show all posts
Showing posts with label midterms. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

What's Wrong with Congress Today: Congressman Pleads Guilty to Tax Faud, Refuses to Resign House Seat

First, I want to say kudos to RealClearPolitics' Caitlin Huey-Burns for the informative article that inspired this post...

We are often berated with polls showing just how unpopular Congress is to the vast majority of Americans, but then again, few President's have much luck getting a majority of Americans to give them a proverbial 'thumbs up' for how their doing at their jobs either. So why the fuss?

The sheer scale of the public's disapproval of Congress is what should really catches folks' attention.

In a report released by the good number-crunchers at Gallup last week, 2014 was found to be the second to worst year for congressional approval since 1974. Just for those keeping score back home, only 2013 was a worse year for Congress. On average, Congress' approval rating for 2014 was just 15% (based on roughly a dozen polls taken since January 2014).

Now, before we get into WHY these numbers are so low, let's address one possible complaint out there about such polls. A lot of folks reading this are probably thinking, "so what, Congress has always been horribly unpopular".

Not true as it turns (something that surprised even me!)..

Also per the good folks at Gallup, while Congress has only rarely has the approval of a majority of Americans (occurring during the years immediately after the 9/11 terror attacks), they regularly had yearly average approval in the 35-50% range during the mid to latter-half of the 1990s.

There were also a few years where their ratings were as terrible as the last few years (1979 and 1992 specifically), they have never before been so consistently low year after year as they have been recently.

But here's what the scary truth is: Many in Congress couldn't care less.

How do I know that? Because of stories like that inspired this post today on RealClearPolitics.

Rep. Grimm of New York (R) has recently pleaded GUILTY to a felony tax fraud charge and also issued a "statement of facts" that acknowledges guilt in several other related charges (ranging from lying under oath to hiring undocumented immigrants), carrying a possible prison sentence of up to 36 months.

BUT he doesn't feel at this time that he could resign he newly re-elected House seat anytime soon.

That's right folks, this guy was just re-elected (rather comfortably I might add) to another 2-year term in Congress. What's worse is that these charges were known during much of the campaign and were (not surprisingly) used by his Democratic opponent in attack ads, but were not enough to scare off his constituents from voting..

Even with all these potentially damning legal charges against him during an election year, this former FBI agent won re-election by a 13 point margin.

So, wins re-election with 20 criminal charges filed against him, pleads guilty to one felony charge and de facto admits to the other 19 charges just 6 weeks after the election (convenient as hell), but thinks he is perfectly able and obligated to continue serving in Congress for the next 2 years.

THAT...is your tax dollars at work folks.

Dirtbags like Rep. Grimm are I fear, not the exception BUT the rule. Just as we saw in Texas' now infamous District Attorney-DUI showdown, regardless of party affiliation, many politicians in America today seem to be think they are ENTITLED to that cushy seat the voters have put them (whether directly or indirectly), illegal activities be damned.

What's potentially even worse is that such a large majority of congressional district voters seemed perfectly OK with looking past their charges during his campaign. Was it a "better the devil you know" situation or just blame complacency on the voters in his district?

Either way, just goes to show that some politicians will try to get away with just about anything to win your vote and sadly, far too many of us are just along with it, which makes US part of what's wrong with Congress today..


DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 


Monday, November 10, 2014

Further Proof that American Politics are getting Ugly..REAL Ugly

If you were watching Fox News on election night last week, you probably saw an exchange occur repeated between commentator Juan Williams and several of the news' panel's more, "conservative" members (seems oxymoronic to have to say so considering this is Fox we're talking about, but bear with me).

The argument that Juan Williams was trying to make early on in the evening was that the results of the election thus far were largely due to an "anti-incumbent" sentiment and since the Democrats had more Senate seats up for grabs, they were bound to lose to some degree because of its sentiment.

Problem was, as the other members of the panel pointed out, even GOP incumbents (including those not really popular in their respective states such as Mitch McConnell) were not only winning but winning with fair margins.

So while Juan Williams may have been wrong in trying to apply this "anti-incumbent" sentiment to the Democrat's eventual defeat, that fact that Senate candidates who are normally not popular with their constituents were fairly easily winning re-election is something to make note of.

The basic logic of elections is this: if the politician is unpopular before the election cycle starts, he/she will probably not have an easy time winning re-election.

But as Senator Mitch McConnell can testify, that is not always the case, not by a long shot.

Further, even in some open Senate races, such as Iowa's seat vied for by Democrat Bruce Braley and GOPer Joni Ernst, neither candidate had a reliably strong lead (let alone pulling more than 50% in a majority of polls) going into election night. Regardless of this, Joni Ernst beat her Democratic opponent by roughly 10 points and won just over 52% of the vote.

This "phenomenon" was explored today by Politico's Maggie Haberman here.

More or less, the political reality of elections works out like this: As long as your polling numbers are better than your opponents, you can win a majority of the voters' support.

What does this really mean?

Well, a nasty by-product of this reality is you can wage a nasty, cutthroat, and downright hateful campaign against your opponent, and as long as enough voters buy what you're selling and like your opponent just a little less than you, you can win. Hence the rise in such election campaign strategies (often times carried out by "unofficially affiliated" Super PACs).

And you wonder why so few politicians these days wage so-called "clean campaigns", which seek to minimize personal attacks on your opponent and aim more to educate voters on your own political stances...

Welcome to the current political reality in America folks, for better or..or just for worse.

DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Things to Remember after Election Night..

Things to Remember After Election Night...

Regardless of which party does come out on top at the end of the night (GOP just 3 seats away from a simple 51-seat majority as I type this), there are going to be some major challenges for the Senate when they come back early next year. Here are just a few of those:

  • IF the GOP manages to win control of the Senate, it's not yet guaranteed that current Minority Leader (and re-elected tonight) Mitch McConnell will end up being the new Majority Leader. He is still fairly unpopular in the more conservative and Tea-Partier sections of the GOP, that opposition at least partially headed by junior Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. That said, given his strong finish (~10-11 point win over his opponent), trying to move him off that top position may be trickier than his enemies within the GOP originally thought. 
  • IF the GOP fails to win majority control of the Senate, we will likely witness a level of GOPers "eating their own" much greater than after Mitt Romney's loss in 2012..No party does it better!
  • Even if the nights turns out really great for the GOP, it doesn't seem likely they will have the same kind of majority the Democrats had going in and thus one has to wonder how effectively the GOP will be able to run the Senate. Harry Reid with a relatively small majority was able to successfully defeat the GOP at seemingly every turn for many years now. Folks may despise Mr. Reid, most political wonks will tell you all day long that he IS an "effective" Majority Leader in that he is very capable of stepping his opposition from having their voice heard. Can Mitch McConnell (or some one else) do the same once in power?
  • Expect President Obama to attempt to "make nice" with the GOP in the next few months and do so very publicly. Why? Because if they spur him while he is so publicly reaching out to them, he could garner additional support for further "executive actions". Further, with the GOP potentially in control of both houses of Congress, the term "lame duck" is going to really start to get thrown around (except for at FoxNews where they have been chatting it up for months now..). What better way to remind folks he is still there than a political showdown?
  • May not actually know the final tally by tonight's end or even by tomorrow. Louisiana's election could turn into a run-off that goes into NEXT YEAR..
  • In addition, while we will all be glad to NOT have to see any more nasty and idiotic political ads on TV for at least a little while, we should expect talk of 2016's presidential election almost IMMEDIATELY..For better or worse.


Overall, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that this year's midterm congressional elections are the most watched and most participated in for many years (we'll wait for some actual data to back-up that up or not). That, in its own right, is a pretty big deal in American politics.
Generally, midterms do not have the same levels of turnout as Presidential elections, not even by a long shot and yet this one is potentially going to have an even bigger impact than the GOP's return to power in the House back in 2010.

For those who did vote in tonight's elections across the country, kudos to you for doing your part to move the political system and actively participating in a political system that far too many see as irreversibly corrupt and pointless.

For those slackers who did NOT vote in this election, here something to keep in mind:
You don't get to whine and bitch about how the federal government is screwing you over if you are too lazy to get off your duff and do something about it.

If you think the government is doing everything wrong, stop just being part of the idiotic and childish echo chamber and try and enact some "change" yourself.

DISCLAIMER:

All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. 


Monday, November 3, 2014

Don't think voter fraud can happen?

Recently, I discussed the arguments for and against stricter voter-ID laws across the United States, specifically focusing on those that require photo-ID of some variety, pointing out using others' works that there was strong argument for and against such laws.

Now, it seems that the potential threat of voter fraud has been demonstrated with both more undercover "operatives" and at least one actual case of it.

Conservative "operative" (not sure what the best word is for him), James O'Keefe showed off video evidence illustrating the major flaws in the states where voting requires no real identification: he was able to impersonate actual individuals on voter registries and on 20 separate places, was not preventing from actually voting. In fact the only thing that seems to have prevented O'Keefe from committing actual voter fraud was his own actions in ending the "undercover operation". 

This however, was not the first time we have heard about the issue of voter fraud in the last 48 hours or so.

Des Moines Register Pollster Gets Flak for latest Poll

Not too surprising, the latest Des Moines Register poll released this past week, which showed GOP candidate Joni Ernst 7 points ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley, has been treated with some suspicion and criticism over the last few days.

The brunt of this flak has been directed at pollster J. Ann Selzer, but she seems to be taking it all in stride...


Des Moines Register pollster on criticism of Senate numbers

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Three days to go until the elections. The die is cast. So CALM DOWN. | RedState

Regular RedState author Moe Lane with a message for those political wonks out there who are in full freak-mode...

Which is definitely not me..

Did I mention a new poll for the Iowa Senate race was out?..


Three days to go until the elections. The die is cast. So CALM DOWN. | RedState

BREAKING Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst takes 7-point Lead

Kudos to The Des Moines Register for breaking this story..

On a cautionary note, this is just ONE poll, but given we are less than 3 days away from the vote, the "shock value" of this poll will definitely be felt in the Braley camp..

Joni Ernst takes a 7-point Lead- The Des Moines Register

The Party of Nonvoters

Kudos to the good folks at the Pew Research Center for an interesting "numbers" piece concerning this year's elections, but not quite the numbers you think..





Instead of investing how the LIKELY voters will be this year, Pew's folks are focusing on the UNLIKELY voters..



Definitely worth a read!





The Party of Nonvoters

Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

The growing possibility of BOTH Iowa members to the U.S. Senate being Republicans has definitely got Democrats back home in Iowa a wee bit nervous..


Kudos to POLITICO's Katie Glueck for this rather timely piece.



Democrats fear Iowa slipping away

Friday, October 31, 2014

CNN's DIY 'Magic Wall' - POLITICO

Another good story for lovers of "political metrics" out there, now CNN is giving folks easy access to their historical and nation-wide elections stats that you have probably seen on any recent election on CNN..



Unless of course you refuse to watch CNN and FoxNews is streamed on a 24/7 basis in your home..



CNN's DIY 'Magic Wall'

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Odds looking good for GOP with 5 Days to Go- FiveThirtyEight Politics

For those who don't know what FiveThirtyEight is, you really are missing out on one of the best sources out there for solid political metrics...

What are political metrics you ask? Simple: Polling Data. 

Normally, polling data isn't terribly exciting stuff (unless you're a nerd for numbers like myself), but world-famous pollster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is one of the best in the business and does so in a way that is, thankfully, presented in such a way that makes it fairly easy to understand for wonks and everyday folks alike. 

Without going into too much depth, FiveThirtyEight compiles information from many hundreds of polls across the nation and in this election cycle, focusing primarily on the odds of which major party will gain or retain control of the United States Senate. 

Now, I invite you to take a gander at today's latest update at the FiveThirtyEight's site giving the current odds of which party will come out victorious in next week's elections...

Though if you're a die-hard Democrat and are at all squeamish, might not be the best idea..

2 Scenarios for Tuesday's Vote- RealClearPolitics

Kudos to RealClearPolitics's Sean Trende for an interesting hypothetical piece on what the election results for next Tuesday could end up being..

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Joni Ernst explains missed edit board - POLITICO

Politico's Jonathan Topaz tackles a recent political ruffle that occurred in Iowa's much talked about U.S. Senate race: Why did the GOP candidate Joni Ernst skip a scheduled interview with the state's biggest newspaper?



Without giving too much away from Mr. Topaz's piece, the idea of The Des Moines Register has a particular political alignment is NOT new. I have heard it my whole life back home about how much of a "liberal rag" the paper was. However, that doesn't necessarily mean it's true, as the paper has indeed endorsed GOP candidates for state-wide and nation-wide office in the past. Notably, during the GOP primary in Iowa, the paper endorsed none other than Joni Ernst!





Joni Ernst explains missed edit board

The Most Wide-Open Senate Election in a Decade- POLITICO

The most wide-open Senate election in a decade




Saturday, October 25, 2014

Des Moines Register Endorses Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate

The editorial board of Iowa's most prominent newspaper has just announced their endorsement for the U.S. Senate race..just in time for tomorrow's Sunday paper! (Insider-Iowa kind of joke there)

Endorsement: Bruce Braley is Better Choice

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Monday, October 13, 2014

Roberts misses two-thirds of ag committee meetings since 2000 | CJOnline.com

Roberts misses two-thirds of ag committee meetings since 2000 | CJOnline.com



Regardless of whether he had perfectly good reasons for missing these meetings, such "news" is a potential PR disaster for a Senator from a rural state like Kansas..

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Watch Full Iowa Senate Debate!

Tonight, we saw the first televised debate in one of the mostly closely watched Senate race this election cycle, between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst.

Hosted and moderated by local TV news station KCCI and concluded only a short time ago.

Thankfully, KCCI was kind enough to post the debate, in full, to their website..

Enjoy!

Iowa U.S. Senate Debate - KCCI News

Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst Now Leads Bruce Braley for Senate

I'll keep this introduction short, the latest Des Moines Register poll in Iowa for the first time in many months actually shows one of the two candidates in the lead. For Democrats though, hoping to keep control of the U.S. Senate, it's not exactly good news..

For details, I leave you in the very capable hands of Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register..

Iowa Poll: Joni Ernst now leads Bruce Braley for Senate