Latest YouGov Polling Results: Mixed News All Around

Seems it took a very detailed new 2016 Presidential poll to get me out of hiding and posting again...

Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27. 

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/02/28/3-4-republican-primary-voters-now-expect-trump-nom/

What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.

Sanders Gaining on Clinton in Iowa

Today a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll was released and for the Democratic side of the race, it's a mixed bag.

For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.

She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?

For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.

Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..

Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near

Here is the actual polling data:

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31.pdf

Feeling the Bern: Sanders Campaign powered by 350k donors

"Feeling the Bern" has become the favorite catchphrase for the insurgent campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders and for good reason. Seemingly everywhere Sanders goes, there are huge crowds (sometimes even over-shadowing the Donald's crowds) and now we have some hard numbers to back up that popularity: 350,000

That's how many donors have contributed financially to the Sanders campaign, reportedly more than ANY candidate in the current presidential race.

So what is behind the "Bern"?

I'll leave that to The Economist's V.V.B., who recent piece Bernie Sanders on tour:Chicago feels the Bern, gives a good idea of the "genius" (or madness) of the Sanders campaign.

#SOSStrawPoll at Iowa State Fair Results: Bernie Leads!

One of the benefits/irritations of being from Iowa is that every four years you get to explain why the Iowa State Fair is all over the national news.

Because of a little thing called the Iowa Caucus, which will be early next year, and is the first-in-the-nation vote for the presidential candidates from both parties. 

And one of the "attractions" at this year's State Fair is an informal (and I would assume, "unscientific") poll taken by Iowa's Secretary of State. As of Saturday night, over 2000 participants from the State Fair have taken part in the poll and here are the results:

The obvious bit that jumps out at your from this poll is Bernie Sanders leader over Hillary Clinton and also the fact that far more votes for Republican candidates have taken place than for the Democrats.

However, I have to mention that this is apparently an unscientific poll and thus should be taken with a rather large grain of salt...

Interesting results nonetheless..

BREAKING: Sanders Leads Clinton in Latest NH Poll!

Rather striking that the same day the FBI inquiry into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server turned up at least one email with "top secret" information, also happens to be the day a new poll comes out of New Hampshire showing Clinton losing the lead for the Democratic nomination..

Specifically, this new poll comes from the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald and show Senator Bernie Sanders taking a 44-37 lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The main hesitation point I would offer concerning this poll is its small survey size: only 442 participants.

Whether Clinton's falling poll numbers are connected to her ongoing scandal over her questionable* use of government email is of course up for conjecture, but it's damn unfortunate timing..if you're working for the Clinton campaign that is.

* = In other words, activity that would get literally ANYONE ELSE FIRED

Republicans aren't the only ones with an activist "problem"..

The 2016 presidential race has definitely taken a turn for the interesting over the last few months.

On the GOP side of the house, they have a massive field of candidates, which had no clear front-runner until arguably the most unlikely of serious candidates, Donald Trump, came onto the scene. Now the GOP is torn between the establishment who is frightened by the prospect of candidate Trump and elements of the party who see him as a "savior" of sorts. 

The Democrat side of the house on the other hand, is a quite different story. From the start, there wasn't much serious talk of Hillary Clinton having any competition for the Democratic nomination. Even when contenders like Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley announced, few political observers/reporters took more than a curious interest. 

Today, Bernie Sanders is seeing massive turnout at seemingly every major event he attends, and unlike Hillary Clinton, his support has all the appearance of real passion from the party's progressive wing. Nationwide polls still show Sanders trailing Clinton by a good ways, but state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota show a much closer race.