Latest YouGov Polling Results: Mixed News All Around

Seems it took a very detailed new 2016 Presidential poll to get me out of hiding and posting again...

Some background real quick. The good folks at YouGov and The Economist conducted this poll. There were 2000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2.9, and was conducted via web-based surveys from February 24-27. 

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/02/28/3-4-republican-primary-voters-now-expect-trump-nom/

What I want to do is dig out some interesting highlights I found in the polling data that may NOT get much coverage in the media (generally lazy folks when it comes to statistics).

Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

The race for the Iowa Caucus just gets better and better...

With Ben Carson falling behind in national polls, his fall in Iowa is far more stark.

Since the last Quinnipiac poll take in Iowa (22 October), Ben Carson dropped from 28% to just 18%, while Senator Ted Cruz has surged from just 10% in October to 23% now.

My Take: Cruz's quick rise is remarkable to me in that he hasn't really grabbed anywhere near as many headlines as Mr. Trump or Mr. Carson and yet he has done very well nationwide and especially in Iowa it seems.


Iowa (IA) Poll - November 24, 2015 - Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Tu | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Hard to argue with the chances of an article about 2016 GOP hopeful Donald Trump and my home state of Iowa getting posted here..

This short piece by RedState's Ben Howe is discussing Mr. Trump's apparent whole-hearted support for the ethanol standard and the EPA's relatively new fuel standards.

As an Iowan (though I don't get to go home as much as I'd like these days), I actually have what many Iowans would call an "unpopular opinion": I don't support the idea of subsidized corn-based ethanol in general, at least not the E-85 stuff they push so much back home. This fuel, which has a number of problems (especially when you compare it to the far more efficient ethanol production going on in places like Brazil) and the idea of the State and Federal governments subsidizing it next sat well with me.

My favorite part of this piece though, was the author's mocking of conservative media power-house Breitbart, which he refers to as "TrumpBart".

True enough!

Trump is all about ethanol cronyism. Because of course. | RedState

Reuters Rolling Presidential Poll -- 17 November 2015

New Poll from Iowa shows big gains for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton

Public Policy Polling released a new presidential poll today showing some major movement in both parties' race to the White House.

Cruz rising in Iowa; Clinton back out to dominant lead

On the GOP side of the house, the biggest overall winner is Senator Ted Cruz, rising from 8% in September to 14%. However, the GOP front-runners in the Caucus State remain outsiders Donald Trump (22%) and Ben Carson (21%).

Not surprising, the biggest loser on the GOP side is Jeb Bush, whose poor performance during last week's CNBC debate has only draw further attention to the shakiness of his campaign.

On the Democratic side of the house, Hillary Clinton has re-established his strong lead in Iowa, pulling support from 57% of primary voters, a huge improvement from her 42% back in September.

And while isn't necessarily bad news for Senator Bernie Sanders (capturing 25% support from Democratic primary voters), the movement since last month is very limited (a 3 point increase in 6 weeks, compared to Clinton's 15 point increase during the same period).

My Take:

No big surprises from the Democrats in this poll. Bernie Sanders hasn't lost any support over the last few weeks but compared to Clinton's, it certainly gives the impression that his support among Iowa Democrats has real limits, which he may be nearing.

Oddly enough, I'm not that surprised by the GOP results in this poll either. Carson's continued strength in Iowa is far more believable than I think many assumed. Iowa's GOP has a very powerful religious faction, one that gave Mike Huckabee the momentum to give John McCain a bit of a scare back in 2008, helped 'eject' three Iowa Supreme Court justices after the courts cleared the way for gay marriage in the state, and then squeaked Rick Santorum past Mitt Romney in 2012.

That's not to say Ben Carson will STAY the favorite of the GOP's more religious crowd. Iowans (regardless of party honestly) are a notorious fickle bunch and any idea of predictability this year in the GOP field was thrown out the window some months ago.

Lessig on Equal Citizens- Long Shot with a Worthy Cause?

I stumbled on this video today and after watching all 38 minutes of it, I'd say it's definitely worth a watch..

But with a few disclaimers:

• Mr. Lessig is making no secret of the fact he plans to run as a Democrat and given his list of possible VPOTUS candidates you can choose from, a fairly "progressive" one. So, if you have any qualms against Democrats and/or Progressives, probably not your candidate. 
• IF Mr. Lessig was to actually make it to the White House, he claims he would also serve as long as it took to pass his Citizens Equality Act into law, after which he would resign the presidency. 

When you look past that first item, I have to say it's hard to argue with his logic on how the political system is rigged and how it does often come back to a simple truth: politicians of both parties are gaming the system to get/stay in office and are becoming less and less representative of the American electorate every election.   

Not saying I would vote for the guy, but the reason for his campaign certainly is a bold one.

Watch the video and think hard about how the federal government has been serving its citizens..

Sanders Gaining on Clinton in Iowa

Today a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll was released and for the Democratic side of the race, it's a mixed bag.

For Hillary Clinton, the bad news is that her lead in the state is fast disappearing, down to just 37% support among Democrats polled.

She does get one small piece of good news: 61% of those Democrats polled don't find her email scandal important. Though if that really is the case, what is the cause of her slipping support among Iowa Democrats?

For Senator Bernie Sanders, his insurgent candidacy is gaining more and more steam in the early states, with Sanders polling 30%, just seven points behind Hillary Clinton. Further, the majority of Sanders' supporters are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and aren't just doing so because his name isn't Clinton.

Good to see that the Democratic side of the race isn't getting stale and boring in wake of the GOP's turbulent race for the top..

Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near

Here is the actual polling data:

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31.pdf

Is Trump's candidacy the beginning of a new era or Just the end of the GOP?

Just a little over four years ago, I posted a piece entitled; Looking for a Jack Ryan President.., in which I posted the political dream of having a President said what he meant and asked the American people to break the vicious cycle in Washington D.C. by electing non-career politicians to Congress in the aftermath of a national tragedy...

Sad bit was, this call for a return to sanity for American politics didn't come from any presidential hopeful, it came from a fictional character in a book written by the late-author Tom Clancy back in 1996.

Amazing how in four years, sadly nothing has truly changed in American politics. Political wannabes promise if elected, they will do everything in their power to undo all the terrible things POTUS has done and not let him get away with all his shenanigans anymore...Just a few months into office and most GOP voters are already having "buyer's remorse" with the GOPers they elected to Congress in 2014. Time and time again, GOP congressional leadership, who made their bones calling POTUS everything short of a traitor to get into their positions of power, have instead rolled over and allow the very things they said they would stop, happen anyway.

Even worse, when some young anti-establishment politicians try to make a political stand (whether for good reasons or not), these same GOP leaders beat them over the head with talk of lacking "professionalism" in their duties as congressmen.

So after getting taken for a ride by the GOP leadership over the last two years, many within the GOP's ranks (and some outside of them) have rallied around a candidate who have never been taken seriously under any "normal" circumstances.

That's right, I'm talking about Donald Trump.

Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016) via RedState

One thing you can say about Erick Erickson, he doesn't really beat around the bush does he?

A fascinating read about the GOP's future (or lack thereof) and IMHO, a very real possibility..

Could 2016 really be looked back on as the day the Republican Party died?

Republican Party, R.I.P. (1854-2016)- RedState

Reuters Exclusive: Dozens of Clinton Emails may have been Classified From the Start

The Clinton email scandal just gets more messy all the time..

Wiped servers (per the FBI), idiotic denials by Clinton herself (does anyone really think she is that stupid?), and now this exclusive from Reuters.

Kudos to Reuters' Jonathan Allen for this interesting story.

Exclusive: Dozens of Clinton Emails may have been classified from the start

Feeling the Bern: Sanders Campaign powered by 350k donors

"Feeling the Bern" has become the favorite catchphrase for the insurgent campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders and for good reason. Seemingly everywhere Sanders goes, there are huge crowds (sometimes even over-shadowing the Donald's crowds) and now we have some hard numbers to back up that popularity: 350,000

That's how many donors have contributed financially to the Sanders campaign, reportedly more than ANY candidate in the current presidential race.

So what is behind the "Bern"?

I'll leave that to The Economist's V.V.B., who recent piece Bernie Sanders on tour:Chicago feels the Bern, gives a good idea of the "genius" (or madness) of the Sanders campaign.

Latest CNN/ORC Poll: Can you stop the Donald?

Latest CNN/ORC poll via PollingReport.com

Trump Finally Unveils Immigrant Policy: End Birthright Citizenship, Deport, & a Wall

Donald Trump has received a lot of flak as of late for being all talk and no details on his wide-ranging policy opinions, none more mocked/ridiculed than his opinions on immigration reform.

Now, Trump has released some details on his proposed immigration policy and to say it will drive amnesty-oriented immigration activists up a wall, would be pretty charitable.

For more details, please read The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan's piece:

Donald Trump: Undocumented immigrants 'have to go'

Good to see the Donald is finally putting some policy where his mouth is, but whether its the RIGHT policy to win over Republican primary voters, is another question entirely..

#SOSStrawPoll at Iowa State Fair Results: Bernie Leads!

One of the benefits/irritations of being from Iowa is that every four years you get to explain why the Iowa State Fair is all over the national news.

Because of a little thing called the Iowa Caucus, which will be early next year, and is the first-in-the-nation vote for the presidential candidates from both parties. 

And one of the "attractions" at this year's State Fair is an informal (and I would assume, "unscientific") poll taken by Iowa's Secretary of State. As of Saturday night, over 2000 participants from the State Fair have taken part in the poll and here are the results:

The obvious bit that jumps out at your from this poll is Bernie Sanders leader over Hillary Clinton and also the fact that far more votes for Republican candidates have taken place than for the Democrats.

However, I have to mention that this is apparently an unscientific poll and thus should be taken with a rather large grain of salt...

Interesting results nonetheless..

BREAKING: Sanders Leads Clinton in Latest NH Poll!

Rather striking that the same day the FBI inquiry into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server turned up at least one email with "top secret" information, also happens to be the day a new poll comes out of New Hampshire showing Clinton losing the lead for the Democratic nomination..

Specifically, this new poll comes from the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald and show Senator Bernie Sanders taking a 44-37 lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The main hesitation point I would offer concerning this poll is its small survey size: only 442 participants.

Whether Clinton's falling poll numbers are connected to her ongoing scandal over her questionable* use of government email is of course up for conjecture, but it's damn unfortunate timing..if you're working for the Clinton campaign that is.

* = In other words, activity that would get literally ANYONE ELSE FIRED

Republicans aren't the only ones with an activist "problem"..

The 2016 presidential race has definitely taken a turn for the interesting over the last few months.

On the GOP side of the house, they have a massive field of candidates, which had no clear front-runner until arguably the most unlikely of serious candidates, Donald Trump, came onto the scene. Now the GOP is torn between the establishment who is frightened by the prospect of candidate Trump and elements of the party who see him as a "savior" of sorts. 

The Democrat side of the house on the other hand, is a quite different story. From the start, there wasn't much serious talk of Hillary Clinton having any competition for the Democratic nomination. Even when contenders like Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley announced, few political observers/reporters took more than a curious interest. 

Today, Bernie Sanders is seeing massive turnout at seemingly every major event he attends, and unlike Hillary Clinton, his support has all the appearance of real passion from the party's progressive wing. Nationwide polls still show Sanders trailing Clinton by a good ways, but state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota show a much closer race. 

RedState contributor take on Donald Trump: Buyer's Remorse?

RedState's "Streiff" has posted an interesting piece on the "Trump phenomenon" currently going on in the GOP right now.

He has come to a somewhat radical conclusion: Donald Trump isn't necessarily part of the "fringe" of the GOP, he is exactly the kind of candidate many GOPers have been hoping for for years: brash, unafraid of political correctness, and supremely confident in his own opinions.

Trouble is, some more prominent GOPers are having something akin to "buyer's remorse" now that Donald Trump has taken the lead in the 2016 race for the GOP.

Great and simple piece IMHO.

I will leave "Streiff" to explain the rest..


Donald Trump is not conservative but he is not fringe | RedState

Erickson Talks of Trump Dis-Invite Backlash

Erick Erickson gave us an idea of the backlash he has received from dis-inviting Donald Trump from the RedState Gathering in his recent piece at RedState..


What Happens When You Rescind an Invitation to Trump? | RedState


Personally, this whole episode shows the, "quality", of at least some of Donald Trump's supporters..or a lack thereof.

Hot Take from Vox.com: the American Revolution was a mistake | RedState

RedState's Streiff takes on some rather pathetic alternative history from some twerp at Vox..

Nothing history majors like myself love more than folks trying to "change" history getting stumped on..


Hot Take from Vox.com: the American Revolution was a mistake | RedState

Breitbart: Illinois GOP State Senator's Crony Capitalism Revealed

For those who assume the folks at Breitbart.com spend all-day picking on President Obama and the Democratic Party in general, here is a slight change of pace for ya.

Revealed: Darin LaHood's Crony Capitalism Deals Funnels Millions of Taxpayer Dollars to Campaign Donors